Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 Storm Names

034
FXCA62 TJSJ 091818
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
218 PM AST Mon Jun 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A tropical wave will maintain above-normal moisture across the
  region. This, combined with local instability, will result in a
  limited to moderate flooding threat across the area.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist and strengthen
  further due to a wind surge, resulting in choppy seas and life-
  threatening rip currents along most beaches throughout the
  week.

* Suspended Saharan dust will continue to filter into the region and
  persist through midweek, promoting hazy skies, especially in areas
  with limited shower activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...

Variable conditions prevailed during the morning hours, with passing
showers moving across the local waters into land. Stronger showers
moved over southeastern Puerto Rico, leaving 3.0 inches of
precipitation based on Doppler Radar Estimates. Flood Advisories
were issued for Yabucoa, Arroyo, Patillas, and Naguabo. The expected
convection activity began, with strong showers and thunderstorms
impacting portions of northwestern Puerto Rico, with some areas
estimated to receive around 1 inch of rainfall. Breezy conditions
also continued today, as stations in coastal areas reported wind
gusts between 25 - 30 mph. Maximum temperatures ranged from upper
80s and lower 90s in urban and coastal areas while interior sections
ranged from mid 70s to lower 80s.

Variable and breezy conditions should persist for the first part of
the workweek. The high surface pressure over the Central Atlantic
continues strengthening, promoting breezy to locally windy E-ESE
wind flow. Season to near above-normal Precipitable Water values are
expected  An upper-level trough should move north of the CWA,
increasing instability aloft. Additionally, the latest model
guidance suggests colder 500 mb temperatures for the rest of the
forecast period. The Glvez-Davison Index continues highlighting the
potential of thunderstorm activity each day, increasing in the
afternoons. The latest NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (TWD)
locates a tropical wave along 57W S of 17N, making its way to the
Caribbean Basin. Although the axis should remain south of the CWA,
moisture associated with the tropical wave could bring showers
and thunderstorm activity close to the forecast area. Overall,
showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop each day,
impacting windward sections during the night and early morning.
Deep afternoon convection is also anticipated over the interior
and western/northwestern portions of Puerto Rico as well. The
flooding potential will remain limited to elevated, with urban and
small stream flooding across the aforementioned areas.

Satellite-derived products show increasing concentrations of SAL in
St. Croix and will spread across the forecast area. These particles
should linger for the next few days, promoting hazy skies, reducing
visibility, and deteriorating air quality.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

/PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM AST Mon Jun 9 2025/

The long-term period will feature variable weather conditions. A
surface high-pressure system over the Atlantic will continue to
build, promoting breezy to locally windy easterly flow. Forecast
guidance indicates that a moderate Saharan Air Layer will be
present once again, especially on Thursday into the end of the
week, likely leading to hazy skies across the region. Precipitable
water values are expected to remain below average to near normal
on Thursday and Friday as dust particles move across the areas.
Regardless, a diurnal pattern will persist, with patches of
moisture and showers reaching the windward sectors of the islands,
especially during the morning and overnight hoursand with afternoon
showers and thunderstorms mainly affecting interior and western
Puerto Rico due to sea breeze convergence, diurnal heating, and
local effects. By Sunday into early next week, moisture levels are
forecast to gradually rise as tropical moisture pools into the
region and ventilation aloft will be present, likely enhancing the
potential for shower activity. Daytime temperatures will range
from the upper 80s to low 90s across lower elevations and coastal
areas, with heat indices exceeding 100F. A limited heat risk will
continue for most coastal and lowland areas due to prevailing east
to east-southeast winds. Minimum temperatures will fall into the
60s in higher elevations and range from the 70s to near 80F
across lower elevations and urban areas.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)

Afternoon SHRA/TSRA could generate MVFR to brief IFR conditions
across TJSJ/TJBQ with Mtn Obsc through 9/23Z. VCSH possible across
USVI terminals throughout the period. ESE winds of 1520 knots
through 23Z, with sea breeze variations and higher gusts,
particularly near SHRA/TSRA. In addition, HZ due to Saharan dust
will continue through at least Wed morning, causing VSBY to drop btw
6-8 miles. Decreasing winds aft 23Z across TAF sites, subject to the
onset of land breezes across the islands.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure system across the central Atlantic will
promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds. A wind surge ahead
of Tuesdays tropical wave will further enhance wind speeds. As a
result, small craft should exercise caution throughout the week
across most waters and local Caribbean passages. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon over the western
waters of Puerto Rico. Overall, the wind pattern will result in
moderate to rough seas throughout the period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Life-threatening rip currents are possible along most northern and
eastern exposed beaches of the islands. Increasing winds will result
in choppy seas, and a High Rip Current Risk may be issued by the end
of the week. For more details, please refer to the Surf Zone
Forecast (SRFSJU).

Shower and isolated thunderstorm activity is likely to persist over
the next few days, particularly across western Puerto Rico each
afternoon.

Reminder: Seek shelter and leave the water or beach at the first
sign of thunder or lightning.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MNG
LONG TERM...YZR
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH...CVB

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion