Hurricane Season runs from June 1-November 30
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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
284 FXCA62 TJSJ 221903 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 303 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2026 * Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, especially across the interior and western Puerto Rico. Brief gusty winds, frequent lightning, and an elevated risk of urban and small stream flooding are expected. * Hot temperatures and elevated heat risks will persist through at least Friday, particularly across urban areas and lower elevations of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. * Moderate Saharan dust concentrations will begin arriving late Thursday, leading to hazy skies, reduced air quality, and lower visibility through the end of the week. * We continue to monitor a tropical wave expected to approach the region on Sunday. While forecast confidence remains moderate, the system could bring beneficial rainfall to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands early next week. && .Short Term(This evening through Friday)... Issued at 300 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2026 The departing surface trough promoted an east-southeast wind flow and another round of showers and thunderstorms east, south, and southeast of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this morning, producing locally heavy rainfall and ponding of water in some areas. By the afternoon, the activity moved into the interior and western portions of PR, where we issued Flood Advisories and Special Weather Statements. The local meteorological network has consistently reported a limited risk of heat, so we decided to cancel it. Meanwhile, the maximum temperatures in PR and the USVI reached mainly in the mid and upper 80s, with some stations reaching the low 90s. Winds in general were out from the east- southeast at 5 to 15 mph, with Buck Island station at St Thomas around 18 mph. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening, particularly across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra, and portions of eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to ponding of water on roadways and localized urban and small-stream flooding. A drier air mass will gradually filter into the region overnight. At the same time, another pulse of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust arrives late tonight into early Thursday, resulting in moderate dust concentrations, hazy skies, and deteriorating air quality. Hotter-than-normal conditions will persist through Friday as the drier air mass, subsidence aloft, and increasing Saharan dust limit shower activity. Attention then turns to a weak tropical wave forecast to approach the region around Friday morning. Although the wave is embedded within a broad area of dry air that should limit its organization, it will likely provide enough low- level moisture to briefly raise precipitable water values to around 2.00 inches and weaken the mid-level cap. This pattern should support a return to a more typical summertime regime, with passing morning showers affecting the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, followed by afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms developing across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico. Forecast confidence remains moderate, and the wave will continue to be monitored as it could bring beneficial rainfall to the islands early next week. && .Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)... Issued at 357 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2026 A surface high pressure over the Atlantic will generally dominate during the period with lows staying mainly over the western to northern Atlantic, this will promote breezy easterly flow on Saturday and east-southeasterly flow late Sunday onwards, with breezy conditions persisting at least through the weekend. However, most available moisture will remain below 800 mb through Sunday afternoon with precipitable water (PWAT) values staying below normal to normal range, with above normal values possible during afternoon convection. Temperatures at 500 mb will remain around -7 to -8 C, at normal to below normal, and will support isolated t-storms associated with afternoon convection (due to diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence and local effects). Showers will also be steered towards the islands from time to time especially during the morning and night hours, however a limited flooding risk can occur mainly during afternoon convection over interior to W and NW Puerto Rico. Looking ahead from late Sunday into Wednesday, recent model guidance indicates a tropical wave-driven moisture surge will affect the region, with PWAT levels to normal and above-normal thresholds. Furthermore, an upper-level low positioned over the islands from Saturday through Monday will maintain lower 250 mb heights and cooler 500 mb temperatures with both trending near or below seasonal norms. Available moisture will in turn reach the mid to upper levels through at least early Wednesday. These factors combined will foster more favorable upper-level dynamics, increasing the likelihood of shower activity and isolated thunderstorm development across the forecast area. Drier air will start to filter over the area Wednesday night. Moderate to locally high concentrations of Saharan Dust will continue to filter over the islands through most of the weekend with concentrations decreasing to low (with isolated patches of moderate concentrations from time to time) late Sunday through Tuesday. Current guidance suggests that moderate to high concentrations of Saharan Dust will then return by Wednesday. Throughout the majority of the forecast period, warm to hot conditions will persist, bringing a limited to elevated risk of heat to coastal, urban and lower elevations. To mitigate the danger of heat-related illnesses, both visitors and residents are advised to keep following heat safety guidelines. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2026 VFR conds across most TAF sites. However, TJSJ and TJPS will briefly experience MVFR conditions with the heaviest RA and TS activity. Winds will remain from the E-SE around 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts, decreasing after 22/23Z. VCSH possible across most sites. HZ will affect the islands from 23/12Z, lowering visibility to around 8SM to 6SM. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2026 The induced surface trough will continue to depart west of the region this evening, maintaining scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of the local waters. Meanwhile, a strengthening Atlantic surface high will maintain east- southeasterly winds through Thursday before veering to the east- northeast late Friday into the weekend as a weak tropical wave approaches the region. This wave will increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms, with locally higher winds and seas in and near stronger convection. Beginning late tonight and continuing into early Thursday morning, a drier air mass accompanied by moderate Saharan dust concentrations will overspread the region, resulting in hazy skies, reduced visibility, and deteriorating air quality. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 300 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2026 A low risk of rip currents will continue across the local beaches tonight. Although the overall risk is low, life- threatening rip currents can still occur, especially near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution and swim near a lifeguard whenever possible. The risk of rip currents will increase to moderate on Thursday and persist into the weekend for beaches along the north and east coasts of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. Under a moderate risk, life-threatening rip currents are possible, and beachgoers should exercise caution before entering the water. Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms may continue over portions of the local waters and nearby coastal areas through this evening. Any thunderstorm that develops could produce frequent lightning and brief gusty winds. A drier air mass and moderate Saharan dust concentrations will overspread the region late tonight into Thursday, leading to hazy skies and reduced visibility. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ MORNING SHIFT...CAM/MMC EVENING SHIFT....YZR/ICP
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