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670
FXCA62 TJSJ 041856
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
256 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions persist along the Atlantic
  coast and north- and west-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the
  U.S. Virgin Islands. Although swell energy is gradually
  diminishing, dangerous breaking waves and life-threatening rip
  currents continue, with a limited risk of coastal flooding in low-
  lying areas through this evening.

* Marine and coastal conditions are expected to briefly improve on
  Friday. However, additional pulses of northerly swell will reach
  the region through the weekend, leading to renewed hazardous
  marine and surf conditions.

* Another very strong northerly to northwesterly swell is expected
  early next week, which may prolong or reintroduce hazardous marine
  conditions and very dangerous surf, including the potential for
  high surf and coastal flooding along exposed coastlines.

* Another frontal boundary is expected to reach the islands this
  weekend, increasing cloudiness, showery weather, and gusty wind
  conditions once again.


&&

.Short Term(This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

Remnants of a frontal boundary that is now well east and southeast
of the region along with up to breezy N-NE winds continued to
promote a cloudy and showery cool advective pattern over the region.
From midnight to noon, radar estimated rainfall accumulations
registered the highest accumulations at north-central to the metro
area to northeast PR. Light to locally moderate but persistent
rainfall during the period left radar estimated accumulations over
the northwestern to southeastern half of Puerto Rico, Culebra,
eastern Vieques, eastern St. Croix and areas of St. Thomas and St.
John. Showers have also begun developing over the interior to
southern and western PR.

Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate
1.75 to 2 inches over the region as moisture related to the frontal
boundary continues to be steered by the N-NE flow from a surface
high over the southwestern Atlantic. This surface high will continue
gradually moving eastward as the period progresses due to a frontal
low moving out of east CONUS. As the high moves eastward the
steering flow will veer (and decrease in speed) to become more
easterly tonight, southeasterly tomorrow and southeasterly to
southerly on Friday. PWAT values are forecast to remain around 1.6
to 1.9 inches on Thursday but decrease to around 1.3 inches on
Friday, leading to lower rain chances and moisture remaining
generally below 800 mb, as opposed to reaching around 550 mb tonight
and tomorrow. A limited flooding risk will continue tonight and
tomorrow, as showers over the eastern region continue tonight, as
well as afternoon to evening showers over interior to southern and
western PR, promote ponding of water over roads and poorly drained
areas with a low chance of urban and small stream flooding. As winds
veer, showers will still reach the eastern region with afternoon
convection over interior to western PR.

Reduced visibility due to patchy fog is also possible over the
interior during the overnight to early morning hours. Official and
unofficial stations have reported highs in the mid 70s to low 80s
over lower elevations of western, northern and eastern Puerto Rico,
up to the low 80s over the USVI, Vieques and Culebra and in the mid
80s to locally around 90 at the southwestern lower elevation areas
of Puerto Rico. Stations are currently reporting temperatures in the
upper 60s to mid 70s over interior. Lows are forecast in the upper
50s to low 60s over the interior and in the low to mid 70s at lower
elevations of PR and the USVI. 925 mb temperatures are forecast to
increase to normal and above normal values as the period progresses.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through next Tuesday)...
Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

Conditions from next weekend into early next week will be
influenced by the arrival of another deep polar trough and its
associated frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain
chances and elevate the flood risk. Current guidance suggests the
front will pass on Saturday, with the trough lingering through the
weekend and increasing moisture values to above-normal levels
near 1.8 inches. At this time, the flood risk on Saturday remains
from limited to elevated, then limited on Sunday. Low-level winds
are expected to remain very light on Saturday, which could result
in slow moving showers and localized ponding. From Sunday through
midweek, winds are forecast to increase and turn from the north-
northeast as a strong high-pressure system builds across the
western Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient across the
region. Areas exposed to northerly and northeasterly flow will
have the highest rain chances as showers are advected inland.

By early next week, moisture levels are expected to remain near
seasonal norms, then slightly increase from Tuesday through
Wednesday as the high shifts farther east into the Atlantic and
lifts the remnant frontal boundary, allowing enhanced moisture
convergence over the region. Additionally, mid to upper-level
are expected to become more dynamically favorable as an upper
level trough swings across the area.

Temperature guidance indicates seasonal to below normal
temperatures, with the coolest conditions expected on Sunday.
Please continue to monitor forecast updates and remain informed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 255 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

SHRA/-SHRA will continue across the region tonight and can
promote brief MVFR conditions. Winds are now ENE and will continue
veering tonight, becoming E by 05/03z and SE by 05/13Z. Winds
will continue at 10 to 20 kts, with higher gusts through 04/23Z,
decreasing thereafter as they veer and picking up again by 05/13z
at around 15 kts. BR possible at terminals with patchy FG over
areas of the interior. BKN/OVC cigs FL020FL070 expected at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

Offshore and nearshore buoy observations indicate that northerly
swell energy is gradually diminishing across the Atlantic waters
this afternoon. As a result, hazardous marine conditions will slowly
improve, with seas subsiding below advisory levels in some areas
later tonight into Friday. However, Small Craft Advisories will
remain in effect through late tonight as residual swell and moderate
to fresh northerly winds continue to produce hazardous conditions
for small craft.

Marine conditions are expected to improve on Friday as seas
temporarily subside and winds weaken. This will likely be the only
period of relative improvement. Pulses of northerly swell will
continue to reach the Atlantic waters through the weekend, causing
marine conditions to once again become hazardous at times,
particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters.

Looking ahead, another very strong northerly to northwesterly swell
is forecast to arrive early next week. This swell will likely result
in widespread hazardous marine conditions and the reissuance of
Small Craft Advisories across most of the regional Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 255 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026

Offshore and nearshore buoy data show a gradual decrease in
northerly swell energy this afternoon. Due to this diminishing
swell, the Coastal Flood Advisory is expected to expire this evening
as the threat of coastal flooding and significant beach erosion
decreases.

Despite the improving trend, a High Surf Advisory will persist
through at least late tonight as hazardous breaking waves and strong
nearshore currents continue. A high risk of rip currents will remain
in effect for most of the period, posing life-threatening swimming
conditions. The rip current risk is expected to briefly decrease on
Friday as hazardous surf subsides.

Conditions will deteriorate again over the weekend as additional
pulses of northerly swell reach the Atlantic coast, leading to
renewed hazardous surf and elevated rip current risk. Early next
week, a very strong northerly to northwesterly swell is expected to
arrive, likely resulting in very hazardous coastal conditions,
including the potential for High Surf Advisories and the reissuance
of a Coastal Flood Advisory.

For localized and updated rip current information, visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-
     002-005-008-010>012.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ011-013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ011.

VI...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ723-726-
     733-735-741-742-745.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MRR
LONG TERM...YZR
MARINE/BEACH FCST/KEY MSGS...CVB

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion