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152
FXCA62 TJSJ 101935
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

-  A high risk for life-threatening rip currents will continue
   through late tonight, becoming moderate by tomorrow through the
   weekend.

-  Moisture content at low-levels, diurnal heating and topographic
   effects will still support shower and thunderstorm development
   over the next few days, mainly over north to northwestern
   Puerto Rico each afternoon.

-  Sensitive individuals should remain hydrated and seek indoors
   during peak daytime heating hours, as the excessive heat risk
   will increase to moderate levels later this week into the
   weekend.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

Additional activity is expected this afternoon mainly over
northern to northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. A mid- level
ridge building aloft will promote more subsidence and drier air in
the mid-levels through the short-term period. However,
precipitable water values will remain seasonal with the highest
concentration at the low-levels. This combined with increased
diurnal heating due to clearer skies expected during the morning,
and terrain effects will promote shower and isolated thunderstorm
development each afternoon over the north to northwest region,
driven by a predominant S-SE wind flow. Meanwhile, passing showers
during the morning are still possible over the windward areas.
Winds are expected to increase in speed on Wednesday onwards due
to a local pressure gradient tightening caused by a surface high
pressure system. This could limit high rainfall accumulations, as
the wind flow will promote faster-moving showers. Nonetheless,
there`s an 80% chance of 24-hour precipitation exceeding 0.5
inches mainly over north/northwestern Puerto Rico on Thursday.

Given these conditions, the potential for excessive rainfall will
be present each afternoon, mainly towards northwestern Puerto
Rico. This will pose a threat of ponding of water over roadways
and poorly drained areas, along with isolated urban and small
stream flooding. In addition, landslides should not be ruled out
due to saturated soils from previous days` activity. Additionally,
above-normal 925 mb temperatures, seasonal moisture content at
low-levels, and low cloud cover could trigger hot and humid
conditions, which will increase heat indices over the next few
days to levels that affect most individuals sensitive to heat.
Thus, these individuals are encouraged to remain hydrated and seek
cooler areas during peak daytime heating hours.


&&

.Long Term(Friday through next Monday)...
Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

A mid-level ridge establishing over northeastern Caribbean late this
weekend should promote more stable conditions over the weekend. As a
result, warming temperatures at the mid-levels (500mb), with a 80%
chance of exceeding -6 degrees Celsius each afternoon until early
next weekend, could promote subsidence and stability aloft. In
addition, a surface high pressure will increase the local pressure
gradient, strengthening winds from the S-SE. This pattern will
extend into early next week, and while more stable conditions are
expected, low-level moisture and local effects should enhance shower
and isolated thunderstorm activity each afternoon mainly towards the
interior to northwest region, driven by a predominant S-SE wind
flow. Deeper convection is expected on Friday, with more shallow
convection expected for the rest of the period. However, the
probability of rainfall accumulations exceeding at least 0.5 inches
in 24 hours remain below 30% on Friday until Monday, suggesting that
we could see less intense downpours during this period. By Tuesday,
a disturbance will drag moisture into the islands, increasing the
chance of exceeding 0.5 inches of rainfall to 40-50%.

The highest flooding potential is expected on Friday, mainly towards
northwestern/northern Puerto Rico. This will pose a threat of
flooding impacts. Additionally, with a S-SE wind flow, seasonal
moisture content in the low-levels, and minimal cloud cover could
trigger hot and humid conditions, especially during the weekend,
likely to increase heat indices to levels that affect most
individuals sensitive to heat. Therefore, they are encouraged to
stay hydrated and cool during peak daytime heating hours.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

Mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the period. -SHRA/SHRA
developing across sectors of northern PR, with VCTS mainly affecting
TJBQ. This pattern can persist through 10/22Z. Surface winds should
range between 4 to around 12 kts with higher gusts, sea breeze
variations, and an ESE background flow, through 10/22Z. Winds
decreasing after 10/22Z, before picking up again after 11/13Z to up
to around 8 to 13 kts from the ESE with sea breeze variations and
local effects.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

A northerly swell will maintain elevated seas up to 4 to 5 feet
across the Atlantic waters and local passages through at least
Wednesday. Elsewhere, seas across the Caribbean waters will
generally remain at 1 to 3 feet. A surface high pressure moving
through the Central Atlantic will tighten the local pressure
gradient, promoting an increase from light to gentle winds today,
becoming moderate to locally fresh by Wednesday onwards. This will
cause choppy seas across most local waters through early weekend.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce locally higher
winds and seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 335 PM AST Tue Nov 10 2026

The ongoing swell will continue to promote hazardous swimming
conditions through tomorrow morning along the north-facing and
exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra. This will continue to
produce life-threatening rip currents in the surf zone. A
moderate-to-limited risk for life-threatening rip currents will
persist through the remainder of the forecast period. Beachgoers
should exercise caution when swimming at the beach and remain
updated with the latest forecasts as they become available.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain a concern each afternoon
especially along the northern and northwestern beaches of Puerto
Rico. If you hear thunder seek shelter immediately.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/KEY MESSAGES...JCP
LONG TERM....JCP
MARINE...JCP
BEACH FORECAST...RVM
AVIATION...MRR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion