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181
FXCA62 TJSJ 020656
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
256 AM AST Thu Jul 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 241 AM AST Thu Jul 2 2026

* Warm to hot conditions will continue through the next several
  days, with heat indices reaching or exceeding 100F across urban
  and low-lying areas of the islands.

* Low concentrations of Saharan dust will persist through early
  Friday before increasing again for the 4th of July holiday.

* Expect limited to elevated flooding associated with the shower
  activity expected across western to northwestern PR.

* Winds are expected to increase over the weekend, accompanied by
  building seas. As a result, the risk of rip currents is expected
  to increase to moderate along most beaches across the islands.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 241 AM AST Thu Jul 2 2026

Overnight conditions remained generally quiet, with only a few
passing showers over the local waters. Low temperatures ranged
from the low 80s to upper 70s across the coastal areas and into
the 70s across the mountains. Winds remained light, generally
between 5 and 10 mph.

Today, expect light Saharan Dust concentrations maintaining
slightly hazy skies. Meanwhile, moisture will remain near
seasonal levels, with precipitable water values ranging between
1.40 and 1.80 inches. A lingering upper-level cut-off low just
north of the region will continue to provide modest instability,
while surface high pressure over the central Atlantic maintains
east- southeasterly winds of 15 to 20 mph. The primary weather
concerns today will be excessive heat and limited to elevated
afternoon flooding. Mostly sunny skies and east-southeasterly
winds will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and
lower 90s across coastal and urban areas, resulting in heat index
values at or above 105F. Brief trade wind showers will move
across the windward coasts during the morning, followed by
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the interior
and western to northwestern municipalities of Puerto Rico during
the afternoon. Daytime heating, sea-breeze convergence, and the
nearby upper- level low will support this activity, with locally
heavy rainfall leading to ponding of water on roads, urban
flooding, and isolated small-stream flooding. In contrast, eastern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are expected to receive
little more than isolated passing showers.

On Friday, weather conditions will remain similar, although Saharan
dust concentrations will gradually increase late in the day. By
Saturday, a thicker dust plume will overspread the islands,
producing hazier skies and a more stable environment that should
limit shower coverage. Even so, isolated afternoon showers remain
possible over western Puerto Rico due to local effects, while hot
conditions continue across the coastal and urban areas.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 241 AM AST Thu Jul 2 2026

Moderate to possibly high concentrations of Saharan dust will
continue to filter over the islands through at least late Wednesday.
Nevertheless, a transition from relatively dry and hazy conditions
to a more humid, unstable but still hazy tropical pattern is
forecast. A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will
maintain generally southeasterly winds (becoming breezier as the
period continues), while a lingering upper-level cut-off low will
continue to linger through next mid-week providing modest
instability through the period. To start the week, shallow moisture
and a plume of Saharan dust will promote hazy skies, hot conditions,
and limited rainfall. However, brief morning showers over eastern
Puerto Rico and isolated afternoon showers and t-storms across the
western interior and northwestern Puerto Rico remain possible due to
local effects and daytime heating. Patches of moisture will continue
to filter in over the area on Tuesday, increasing precipitable water
(PWAT) values to high end normal and above normal values. This
increasing moisture will support more active afternoon convection
across western and northwestern Puerto Rico, however moderate to
locally high concentrations of Saharan Dust continue to be forecast.
By late Tuesday and Wednesday, a tropical wave is expected to bring
another surge of tropical moisture (keeping PWAT above normal),
which, along with favorable upper-level dynamics, will increase
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. This can result in
localized ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas.
However, concentrations of Saharan Dust will continue to filter over
the region. Conditions will once again dry out on Thursday, however
a brief window with less concentrations of Saharan Dust is forecast,
giving way to a more typical summer pattern. Warm to hot conditions
will persist throughout the period as heat index values are expected
to reach and/or surpass the 100s over coastal and lower elevation
areas of the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 241 AM AST Thu Jul 2 2026

Mostly VFR conds across all TAF sites. Afternoon TSRA may result
in VCSH/VCTS at TJBQ aft 02/17 thr 02/23Z. E-SE winds between
12-16 kt are expected with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.
Winds will become light and variable at 5-10 kt aft 02/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM AST Thu Jul 2 2026

Surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain
moderate to locally fresh east to east-southeasterly winds across
the regional waters through the next several days. Seas will remain
generally moderate, with locally choppy conditions at times. A
Saharan Air Layer will gradually build through the weekend, with
moderate concentrations expected by late weekend. Isolated afternoon
thunderstorms may develop over the northwestern coastal waters of
Puerto Rico.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 241 AM AST Thu Jul 2 2026

The risk of rip currents will remain low through Friday before
gradually increasing to moderate across many exposed local beaches
this weekend as winds strengthen and seas slowly build. Despite the
low risk, life-threatening rip currents remain possible near
jetties, reefs, and piers. Saharan dust will gradually increase
through the weekend, with moderate concentrations expected by late
weekend, leading to hazy skies and reduced air quality. Hot daytime
conditions and isolated afternoon thunderstorms near the
northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico will also be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM AST Thu Jul 2 2026

Low fire weather threat for today.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MMC
LONG TERM...MRR
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion