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717
FXCA62 TJSJ 201830
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
230 PM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents and dangerous surf continue across
  the Atlantic beaches of Puerto Rico (Rincon to Fajardo) and
  Culebra through late tonight. The high rip currents will continue
  on Saturday along the Atlantic Coastline.

* St. Thomas, St. John, and nearby islands will continue to observe
  life-threatening rip currents through at least Saturday evening.
  Thus, a high risk of rip currents is in effect.

* Near to above-normal temperatures will continue through the next
  few days. However, mostly clear skies will allow for nighttime
  radiational cooling overnight.

* Rain chances increase by midweek next week, mainly across the
  interior and western Puerto Rico, from Wednesday through
  Thursday. Please, actively monitor forecasts for updates as
  conditions become more unsettled.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 230 PM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

Mostly clear skies prevailed today, with maximum temperatures in
the mid-80s to the upper-80s and heat indices in the mid-90s
across PR and the US Virgin Islands. Winds were from the east at
10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts and sea-breeze variations. A few
showers moved across the local waters, and some of them moved
across the windward locations.

Hazardous coastal conditions continue today as dangerous breaking
waves batter the Atlantic Coastline, causing life-threatening rip
currents and very dangerous surf conditions for beachgoers from
Rincon to Fajardo, and Culebra. At the same time, St Thomas, St
John, and the adjacent islands have a high risk of rip currents.
These hazardous coastal conditions will last through at least
Saturday.

Local weather effects and sea breeze variations will promote limited
rainfall across western and interior PR this afternoon and evening.
After that, mostly clear skies will prevail overnight. Additionally,
wind-driven passing showers will occasionally occur across the
windward locations in the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico;
elsewhere, showers clear skies. Clear skies will promote nighttime
radiational cooling, resulting in lows along the coast in the low to
mid-70s, while across the mountains, around the low to mid-60s.

A mid-to-upper-level ridge will promote a relatively stable
atmosphere with dry air and subsidence aloft through the short term.
At the same time, a surface high pressure will increase local winds,
mainly from the east to east-southeast. This wind flow will promote
the passage of occasional showers, especially across the windward
areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands during the morning
and overnight. In the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers are
expected in the interior and western regions of Puerto Rico,
influenced by variations in the sea breeze and local factors. These
showers are likely to be shallow due to dry air and subsidence
aloft. Overall, mostly fair weather is anticipated to persist
through the end of the short-term forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 438 AM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

The long-term forecast begins with a stable and relatively quiet
weather pattern as a broad surface high-pressure system extending
across the Central Atlantic into the Caribbean maintains a steady
southeasterly wind flow across the islands. This wind pattern will
favor warm daytime temperatures, particularly across northern and
western Puerto Rico. Precipitable water values between 1.1 and 1.3
inches, mostly from the shallow moisture trapped below 700 mb, will
support afternoon convection driven by diurnal heating and local sea
breeze convergence, mainly across northwestern Puerto Rico. On
Tuesday, surface conditions will gradually shift as a prefrontal
trough associated with an approaching frontal boundary moves north
of Hispaniola, diminishing the pressure gradient and allowing light
and variable winds through Wednesday. This more relaxed flow pattern
may enhance local convergence and allow showers to develop more
efficiently despite modest moisture availability. Overall rainfall
accumulations early in the period should remain limited, with minor
ponding possible in urban and poor drainage areas during peak
afternoon activity.

By Wednesday, a transition toward a more unsettled pattern is
expected as deeper moisture associated with the frontal boundary
spreads across the region and low-level winds shift to the east-
northeast. Increasing precipitable water values, colder temperatures
aloft near 500 mb, and divergence associated with an upper-level
trough will enhance instability and vertical development. This setup
may support more widespread shower activity, periods of moderate to
locally heavy rainfall, and isolated thunderstorm development,
particularly across northern and interior Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Localized flooding in urban and low-lying areas
cannot be ruled out if training showers develop. From late Wednesday
into Thursday, surface high pressure building from the Western into
the Central Atlantic will gradually reestablish moderate easterly
trade winds. However, lingering mid-level moisture and pockets of
instability may continue to generate passing showers, especially
overnight and during the early morning hours across windward areas,
followed by afternoon convection across western Puerto Rico. A
variable weather pattern is expected to persist into the latter part
of the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 PM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected over the next 24 hours across all TAF
sites. Brief VCSH are possible during the overnight period across
USVI sites & TJSJ. Aft 21/17Z, VCSH will be possible near USVI &
TJBQ. Winds becoming lighter aft 20/23Z, then E winds aft 21/14Z
at around 13 to 16 kts with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts and typical
sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

A long-period northerly swell will continue to spread across the
local Atlantic waters and passages through late tonight. At the
same time, a surface high-pressure system building over the
western and central Atlantic will promote light to moderate
easterly winds through late tonight, becoming moderate to locally
fresh by tonight. Thus, combined moderate to rough seas will
result in hazardous conditions for small craft during this period.
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect over the Mona Passage,
Atlantic offshore and coastal waters through late tonight. A
gradual improvement in marine conditions is expected later in the
weekend. Another swell could reach the islands by the middle of
next week, deteriorating local conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 230 PM AST Fri Feb 20 2026

A long-period northerly swell will continue to promote hazardous
coastal conditions along northern-exposed beaches. A High Surf
Advisory is in effect through 6 PM AST this evening from Rincon to
Fajardo, as well as Culebra, due to large breaking waves up to 10
to 12 feet. A High Risk of Rip Currents (life-threatening rip
currents are likely in the surf zone) will also continue for the
north-facing beaches of St. Thomas, St John, Puerto Rico, as well
as Culebra through at least Saturday night.

Although the risk of rip currents will moderate early next week,
another northerly swell will deteriorate coastal conditions once
again by the middle of next week. Stay tuned for future updates.

Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to stay out of these
exposed waters, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all
local advisories, warnings, and lifeguard and official guidance. For
more information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711-712-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ716-742.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACH...CAM
LONG TERM...LIS
AVIATION...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion