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532
FXCA62 TJSJ 241846
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
246 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 246 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2026

* High Risk of Rip Currents remains present along northern,
  western, and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St.
  Thomas through al least Sunday evening. Another northerly swell
  arriving Monday will renew hazardous surf and rip currents into
  the workweek.

* Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will bring localized
  flooding, lightning, and gusty winds the rest of the weekend
  into the early next week, across portions of Puerto Rico.

* Drier air from Wednesday onward should reduce rainfall coverage
  and flooding potential, although isolated afternoon
  thunderstorms will continue.

* Warm and humid conditions will prevail over the coming days,
  primarily affecting people sensitive to heat and those outdoors
  without adequate hydration or effective cooling.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 246 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2026

Scattered showers moved across portions of southeastern Puerto
Rico into the eastern interior during the morning hours. Although
these showers were fast-moving, Doppler radar and satellite
imagery indicated rainfall accumulations between 0.50 and 1.00
inch, with the highest totals extending from northern Yabucoa to
northern Guayama and Cayey. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, fast-
moving showers moved over the area as well; however, no
significant accumulations were observed. Warm conditions prevailed
across the islands today, with daytime highs reaching the upper
80s to low 90s along coastal and urban areas, and the upper 70s to
low 80s in the mountains. Heat indices reached the triple digits
across coastal and urban sectors throughout all islands due to
abundant moisture and south-southeasterly winds. Because winds
have prevailed from the south-southeast for most of the day, heat
indices climbed to 105 to 110F across the north-central
municipalities of Puerto Rico. Residents in these areas are
encouraged to stay hydrated and seek shade or air-conditioned
spaces whenever possible.

For the rest of the day, abundant moisture and marginal instability
will persist over the region, promoting the development of showers
and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of
interior, northern, and northwestern Puerto Rico. These showers are
expected to be fast-moving due to moderate to locally breezy winds.
However, wherever heavier rains train or linger, localized ponding
of water in urban and poorly drained areas remains possible.

By Sunday into Monday, model guidance continues to differ on
available moisture levels to start the week. The GFS model projects
precipitable water (PWAT) values of 2.00 to 2.10 inches (near to
above normal), whereas the ECMWF introduces drier air with values
between 1.60 and 1.75 inches (below normal) before both models align
around 2.00 inches (near-seasonal values) by Monday. Despite
Sunday`s model discrepancy in moisture content, lingering moisture,
daytime heating, sea breeze convergence, and local orographic
effects will sustain afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms,
mainly across interior, northern, and western Puerto Rico under
prevailing southeasterly wind flow. Meanwhile, brief passing
showers will continue to affect the U.S. Virgin Islands and
eastern Puerto Rico overnight and during the morning hours.

Above-normal temperatures at the 925 mb level will persist through
next week, sustaining warm and humid conditions across the islands.
Residents and visitors should practice heat safety by drinking
plenty of fluids, taking frequent breaks in shaded or air-
conditioned environments, and never leaving children or pets in
unattended vehicles.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 335 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2026

Wetter conditions may persist Tuesday, then transition to a seasonal
pattern Wednesday onward. A surface high pressure building over the
Central Atlantic should maintain a SE-S steering flow, though it
will likely remain weak through most of the period as the local
pressure gradient weakens due to the interaction of the high with a
deep-layered trough. The trough should also interact with a mid to
upper-level ridge northeast of the region. The latest model guidance
suggests abundant moisture content across the region, with PWAT
values reaching well above climatological normal (up to 2.25
inches). Although low to mid levels RH remains high (above 60%), the
latest solutions suggest that a portion of the PWAT is also
associated with high clouds across the CWA. If cloud cover dominates
during Tuesday morning, this may inhibit deeper convection, with
mainly an advective pattern over windward areas. Otherwise, showers
and thunderstorms over the mountain ranges of Puerto Rico may lead
to urban and small stream flooding, without ruling out rapid river
rises.

Wednesday onwards, PWAT values should drop to seasonal and below
normal (between 1.5 and 1.75 inches), as a drier slot filters in
the mid levels on Wednesday, followed by another slot in the 850-
700 mb layer. Although the ridge may linger near the area and
bring subsidence aloft, the combination of daytime heating, local
effects, sea-breeze convergence, and available moisture will be
the main driver of convection each afternoon, particularly across
the mountain ranges of Puerto Rico into northern/northwestern
portions. Additionally, during that period, the vicinity of the
Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and Kelvin waves may boost upward
motion, aiding deep convection. Although the flooding risk should
be lower from Wednesday onwards due to the drier air, during the
afternoons, isolated thunderstorms could still produce gusty winds
and lightning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 246 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2026

Mainly VFR conds are expected across all TAF sites through most
of the forecast period. Afternoon SHRA/-TSRA is possible and could
result in brief MVFR conds and mtn obsc at TJBQ thru 24/23Z. VCSH
are expected across TJSJ/TIST/TISX thru 25/13-14Z. Mainly S-SE
winds up to 10-15 kt with gust up to 20 kt and sea breeze
variations. Winds will become light and variable aft 25/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2026

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic continues to
promote gentle to moderate, occasionally locally fresh,
southeasterly winds across the region. Small Craft should exercise
caution, particularly across the Atlantic waters and Mona
Passage. Marine conditions are expected to briefly improve on
Sunday as the northerly swell gradually subsides. However, another
northerly swell is expected to arrive across the local waters by
Monday, increasing seas once again and maintaining hazardous
marine conditions across the Atlantic waters and passages into the
upcoming workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 246 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2026

Through the weekend, the high risk of life-threatening rip
currents continues for the northern, western, and eastern coastal
areas of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St. Thomas. As a result, the
Rip Current Statement remains in effect through at least late
Sunday night. Breaking waves around 6 feet along exposed beaches
will continue to produce dangerous swimming conditions. Another
pulse of long-period northerly swell is expected to spread across
the Atlantic waters by Monday, keeping deteriorated coastal
conditions early next week. This additional swell will likely
increase breaking wave heights and maintain a high risk of life-
threatening rip currents along exposed beaches into the upcoming
workweek. Beachgoers are strongly urged to avoid entering the
water at beaches under a high rip current risk. Heed all beach
signs and instructions from lifeguards and local authorities.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GRS
LONG TERM...MNG
MARINE/BEACH...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion