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FXCA62 TJSJ 151735
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
135 PM AST Mon Jun 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 135 PM AST Mon Jun 15 2026

* Generally stable and fair weather conditions will prevail
  through much of the week, although a slight increase in moisture
  and shower activity is possible toward the end of the week.

* Warm to hot conditions will persist, with elevated heat indices
  posing a risk to vulnerable populations and those spending
  extended periods outdoors.

* An elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread continues,
  particularly across southern and western Puerto Rico.

* The risk of rip currents will range from low to moderate over
  the coming days along many exposed beaches.

* Trace concentrations of Saharan dust will linger through
  midweek. A plume of moderate to high dust concentrations is
  expected to arrive around Thursday, resulting in hazy skies,
  reduced visibility, and deteriorating air quality.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 135 PM AST Mon Jun 15 2026

A dry and overall stable air mass will linger across the region
through Tuesday, followed by a minor increase in low-level
moisture by midweek. Model guidance indicates precipitable water
(PWAT) values suppressed to near or below the 25th percentile,
around 1.25 inches, before recovering slightly toward 1.60 inches
by late Wednesday. This highly stable environment is supported by
dry mid-levels, with 700-500 mb relative humidity dropping to
15-30% and 850-700 mb relative humidity remaining below 40%.
Additionally, the latest NASA aerosol optical thickness model and
real-time total precipitable water products confirm a dry profile,
with a light layer of Saharan dust, keeping skies generally hazy
and suppressing widespread deep convection.

Winds will remain brisk out of the east to east-southeast at 15 to
20 knots, with 925 mb wind speeds consistently remaining between 15-
20 knots, supporting mostly quick passing showers. High-res model
guidance indicates minimal rainfall accumulations across the region.
Diurnally driven showers will be brief and sparse, limited mostly to
light passing showers across windward areas during the
overnight/early morning hours, followed by isolated, shallow
afternoon convective development over western Puerto Rico. However,
by Wednesday, localized amounts of up to an inch of rain are
possible in western PR as instability increases somewhat as an upper-
level trough retrogrades across the Atlantic. Strong daytime heating
will persist, with maximum temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
across coastal and urban areas. Heat indices are expected to exceed
100F each day across the lower elevations of the islands.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Mon Jun 15 2026

Model guidance suggests a modest increase in moisture late this
week as a tropical wave passes south of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. At the same time, the persistent mid-level ridge
is forecast to shift west of the region while a lingering upper-
level trough east-northeast of the area exerts greater influence,
resulting in slight cooling aloft and a gradual weakening of the
trade wind cap. However, dry mid-level air is expected to persist,
and moderate Saharan dust concentrations forecast through Friday
should temper the overall coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms.

As a result, only a modest increase in shower activity and the
potential for isolated thunderstorms is anticipated from Thursday
into Friday. While localized heavier downpours cannot be ruled
out, the prolonged dry pattern and significant rainfall deficits
should keep the overall flooding threat limited. Beyond Friday,
forecast uncertainty increases, but a generally typical trade-wind
pattern with passing showers and isolated afternoon convection is
expected to continue. Overall confidence in the long-term forecast
remains moderate, as the timing and interaction of these features
continue to vary among model guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM AST Mon Jun 15 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. Low-level winds will prevail E-ESE at 15-
25 kt, bcmg light and variable at the sfc overnight. HZ due to
Saharan dust will continue across the region, but VSBY will remain
P6SM.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM AST Mon Jun 15 2026

A broad area of high pressure over the central Atlantic will
continue to support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across
the region. Seas are expected to range between 4 and 6 feet, with
occasional higher waves across the offshore waters and local
passages, resulting in Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions.
Winds are forecast to ease slightly from Tuesday into Wednesday,
allowing seas to gradually subside to between 3 and 5 feet. By
Thursday, a tropical wave is forecast to approach the northeastern
Caribbean, bringing a modest increase in moisture and shower
activity across the local waters. At the same time, Saharan dust
concentrations are expected to increase to moderate to high
levels, leading to hazy skies and the potential for reduced
visibility.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 135 PM AST Mon Jun 15 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will prevail tonight for most
beaches across Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well
as St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. From Tuesday through
early Thursday, the rip current risk will vary between low and
moderate levels. Beginning Thursday afternoon, increasing winds
will cause a moderate risk to become reestablished along most
beaches, with these conditions expected to persist through the
weekend.

Beachgoers should remain vigilant, swim near lifeguards when
possible, and follow the guidance of local authorities and beach
warning flags, as rip currents can create life-threatening
conditions. Additional information on location-specific rip
current risks is available at weather.gov/beach/sju.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM AST Mon Jun 15 2026

A Fire Danger Statement (RFDSJU) remains in effect until 4 PM AST
this afternoon. Surface observations have reported minimum
relative humidity values primarily in the lower 50 percent range,
along with wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Combined with above-
critical Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values and increasingly
dry fuels, these conditions are contributing to elevated fire
danger across the area. Similar, or even locally critical, fire
weather conditions capable of supporting rapid wildfire growth and
spread may persist over the next several days if the current
weather pattern continues.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...DS
LONG TERM...LIS
MARINE/BEACH/FIRE...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion