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502
FXCA62 TJSJ 271735
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
135 PM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 128 PM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

* A wet and unstable weather pattern will continue this afternoon
  and tonight over Puerto Rico, increasing the risk of flooding in
  urban areas, small streams, and places with repeated rainfall.
  Rapid rises in rivers may occur, along with potential landslides
  and rockfalls in steep terrain.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers and isolated
  thunderstorms may cause ponding of water on roads and in low-
  lying areas.

* Our region is likely to experience afternoon thunderstorms
  daily throughout the forecast period.

* Marine and coastal conditions are expected to deteriorate from
  late Monday night through at least Thursday as a long-period
  northerly swell arrives. Hazardous surf conditions are possible,
  along with an increased risk of rip currents and potential
  Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 128 PM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

During the morning hours, most of the activity remains over the
Atlantic Offshore waters. Meanwhile, the US Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico observed variable skies, with mostly sunny in some
locations, especially along the west and southern PR and St Croix,
and partly cloudy across the windward locations. Rain activity
began to increase around noon, with some streamers developing
downwind of the USVI, Vieques, Culebra, and El Yunque over the
local waters and portions of the islands. Maximum temperatures
were in the mid- to upper 80s across urban and coastal locations,
to the upper 70s or low 80s. Winds were mainly from the east-
southeast at 5 to 15 mph, with sea-breeze variations and higher
gusts.

By tonight, convection will gradually diminish, though showers
and isolated thunderstorms will persist overnight, with a risk of
flooding present especially along the west or north coast of PR.
As winds shift from east-southeast to east-northeast, low-level
convergence could enhance the potential for flooding along the
northern sections of PR and the northern USVI.

A wet and unstable pattern will persist through at least Saturday
as a mid- to upper-level trough deepens into a cutoff low over
the region. Strong upper-level divergence associated with a
subtropical jet streak (near 90100 kt) and colder temperatures
aloft (around -8 to -10C at 500 mb) will maintain favorable
conditions for shower and thunderstorm development.

Abundant moisture combined with diurnal heating and local effects
will support another round of active weather each afternoon,
particularly across interior and western to northwestern Puerto
Rico. Soils remain saturated in these areas due to recent
rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding impacts. Urban and small
stream flooding, rapid river rises, and hazardous travel
conditionsespecially at nightare possible. Landslides and
rockfalls remain a concern in steep terrain. Some thunderstorms
may become strong, producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and
small hail, mainly across higher elevations.

Saturday will be a transitional day as slightly drier air begins
to filter into the region late in the afternoon and overnight.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue during the
afternoon, with the focus shifting toward interior and
southwestern Puerto Rico. By Sunday, drier air aloft and improving
conditions will support a gradual decrease in widespread rainfall
activity and a lower, though not zero, flooding risk. However,
lingering moisture and local effects may still result in isolated
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)...
Issued at 129 AM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

A persistent subtropical jet will remain over the region, supporting
period of favorable conditions as embedded disturbances pass nearby.
At the surface, a strengthening high over the western-central North
Atlantic will promote breeze to windy northeast flow early in the
week, briefly shifting more east to east-northeast before a surface
trough develops to the northeast. Moisture will increase rapidly
after early Monday, with precipitable water values rising to well
above normal and remaining elevated through the period. Despite some
lingering mid-level dryness early on, conditions will support daily
shower and thunderstorm development, along with increasing trade wind
shower activity.

Hazard risks will increase through the period as a wetter and more
unstable pattern becomes established. Flooding impacts will become
more likely from Monday onward, particularly in urban and poorly-
drained areas, and may be exacerbated over saturated soils. Breezy
to windy conditions will persist, and thunderstorms may produce
lightning and locally erratic winds. Confidence is medium in an
active pattern, and uncertainty remains in the timing and intensity
of embedded features that may enhance rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

VRB conds will persists across most terminals. Aft convection will
bring -TSRA/+TSRA across PR, with TEMPOs over JBQ and JSJ btwn 27/17-
27/21z, reducing CIGs/VIS and leading to MVFR conds. TSRA is
expected to continue tonight for JBQ, improving by 28/06z, with
PROB30s for JSJ and IST may experience MVFR conds btwn 28/03-28/06z.
Winds will weaken and become light and VRB aft 27/22z, strengthening
from the E-NE btwn 10-14 kt, btwn 28/12-28/13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

A mid- to upper-level trough will continue to promote unstable
weather across the region tonight and Saturday, supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A shearline north of the
area will maintain light to moderate east-southeast winds this
afternoon, increasing to moderate to fresh out from the east-
northeast from tonight through the weekend and resulting in
choppy seas. A cold front will approach from the western Atlantic
Sunday into Monday, followed by stronger winds early next week. In
addition, a long- period northerly swell will build across the
local waters beginning late Monday night, leading to hazardous
marine conditions through at least Thursday. These conditions will
be dangerous for small craft operators.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 128 PM AST Fri Mar 27 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north- and
east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
while a low risk will persist along south-facing beaches.

Conditions are expected to deteriorate early next week. A long-
period northerly swell combined with increasing winds from Tuesday
through Thursday will likely result in a high risk of rip
currents along exposed coastlines. Hazardous surf conditions and
life-threatening rip currents are expected, particularly along
north-facing beaches.

Beachgoers should exercise caution and remain aware of changing
marine conditions. Always swim near a lifeguard and follow local
safety guidance.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES/SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...CAM
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion