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976
FXCA62 TJSJ 110706
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
306 AM AST Wed Nov 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 306 AM AST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Morning passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico, followed by
  locally induced afternoon showers over northwestern Puerto
  Rico today.

- Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mainly fair weather conditions
  are expected.

- Southeasterly to southerly winds will promote warm to hot
  conditions over the coming days. Sensitive individuals should
  remain hydrated and limit sun exposure during peak heat hours.

- There is a moderate risk of rip currents along northern and
  eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S.
  Virgin Islands. Remain cautious as life-threatening rip
  currents are possible.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 306 AM AST Wed Nov 11 2026

Fair weather conditions were present during the overnight period
with mostly clear skies. Surface observations registered minimum
temperatures into the mid 70s to low 80s across coastal areas and
into the 60s to low 70s across the mountainous regions. Winds
remained mainly light and variable.

Surface high pressure across the western and central Atlantic
will maintain a moderate southeast to south wind flow across the
region over the coming days. Model guidance suggests precipitable
water values will fluctuate between approximately 1.70 (today)
and 2.10 inches (mainly on Thursday), remaining near normal to
slightly above normal based on climatology for the month of
November. Although a building ridge aloft will promote generally
stable conditions and drier air in the middle and upper levels,
sufficient low-level moisture will remain across the region to
support passing showers. Weak low-level perturbations embedded
within the prevailing flow may also contribute to occasional
increases in shower activity.

Today, expect passing showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
the eastern and southeastern coastal sections of Puerto Rico
during the overnight and early morning hours. During the
afternoon, daytime heating, local effects, and sea breeze
convergence will favor shower development across the interior and
western to northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. While widespread
organized convection is not anticipated, locally heavy rainfall
will remain possible. By Thursday afternoon and Friday, moisture
content slightly increases, not only at the surface but in the
850 to 500 mb levels. The frequency of trade wind passing showers
will likely increase Thursday night along the Caribbean waters
into southeastern portions of Puerto Rico. Therefore, isolated
urban and small stream flooding, along with minor water
accumulation on roadways, cannot be ruled out, particularly
Thursday and Friday across the northwestern and southeastern
portions of Puerto Rico.

At the surface, generally warm to hot conditions are expected
across the islands. Forecast 925-mb temperatures indicate warm
low-level air persisting throughout the period, supporting daytime
temperatures above seasonal averages in some areas, particularly
across coastal and urban locations. Combined with periods of
sunshine and the prevailing southeasterly flow, these conditions
may contribute to elevated heat indices during the afternoon
hours, primarily affecting those who are particularly sensitive to
heat. Remember to remain hydrated.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 306 AM AST Wed Nov 11 2026

The forecast remains predominantly on track. Model guidance
indicates that a surface high pressure over the east-to-central
Atlantic will maintain a calm-to-breezy SSE to SE wind flow across
the islands through Sunday. As the high pressure recedes further
into the eastern Atlantic Ocean the winds will shift to be calm
and from the ENE on Monday. On Tuesday a developing surface low-
pressure system to the NW of the islands will again shift the
direction of the winds to be predominantly from the ESE. Available
moisture will reduce into the long-term period across the CWA as
precipitable water (PWAT) and column relative humidity values
remain below seasonal levels acting as a limiting factor for the
development of convection. Another inhibiting factor for the
development of deep convective cells will be a mid-level ridge
over the eastern Caribbean. This high-pressure will warm
temperatures above -6 degrees Celsius (probability of exceedance
of around 70% each day) and consequently weaken the lapse rates at
these levels. These conditions will lead to subsidence and
stability above. Nonetheless, available moisture along with local
effects (i.e., sea-breeze convergence, orographic effects and
diurnal heating) will lead to the development of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon with a focus along the northern
interior, western interior, and northwestern regions of Puerto
Rico during the afternoons. Advective showers during the mornings
and nights and streamers from El Yunque and the smaller islands
during the afternoons will impact portions of the US Virgin
Islands and eastern Puerto Rico each day.

Some of the expected risks throughout the long-term include ponding
of water in roads and poorly drained areas as well as a a low chance
of urban and small streams flooding over region where frequent
downpours occur. One of the main concerns for the long-term forecast
are associated to heat. The available moisture, calm winds, and
lower cloud cover and above seasonal 925 mb temperatures will lead
to a level of heat that  affects most individuals sensitive to heat,
especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 306 AM AST Wed Nov 11 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites
during the forecast period. However, locally induced -SHRA/-TSRA
may develop in and around TJSJ/TJBQ between 11/17-21z. This can
result in intermittent/brief MVFR conds. E-SE winds up to 10 kt
with sea breeze variations expected aft 11/13z, then becoming
lgt/vrb aft 11/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM AST Wed Nov 11 2026

A northerly swell will continue to subside today. Meanwhile,
building surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will
tighten the local pressure gradient, resulting in increasing east
to southeast trade winds. Moderate to fresh trades will develop
Thursday and persist through Saturday, producing increasingly
choppy to confused seas. Small craft should exercise caution
across portions of the local waters during this period. Afternoon
thunderstorms developing over Puerto Rico may move over the
adjacent coastal waters and produce locally hazardous marine
conditions, including higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 306 AM AST Wed Nov 11 2026

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will prevail
today along most northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico,
Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The moderate risk
will remain widespread through Saturday, expanding at times to
portions of the southern and western beaches of Puerto Rico as the
trade winds strengthen.

Some improvement is expected Sunday, particularly along the northern
and eastern beaches, although a moderate risk will continue along
portions of the southern coast. By Monday, the moderate risk may
return to portions of the northern and western beaches of Puerto
Rico.

With increased beach activity expected for Veterans Day, beachgoers
should remain cautious, as life-threatening rip currents are
possible in the surf zone.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...YZR
LONG TERM...RVM
MARINE/BEACH...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion