984 FXCA62 TJSJ 081458 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1058 AM AST Sat Feb 8 2025 .UPDATE... Trade wind showers were observed through the morning hours across the USVI, Vieques, Culebra, and most of eastern and northern PR. Some showers made it further inland over central PR due to the strong trades. The Doppler radar estimated around half an inch of rain over el Yunque area since midnight. Max wind gusts were between 25 and 31 mph. Temperatures were in the low 80s across the lower elevations as of 10:30 AM. Breezy conditions and scattered showers will continue through the rest of the day across the islands. .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Mainly VFR expected...except in brief MVFR cigs at FL025-FL030 due to quick trade wind SHRA across the USVI terminals and TJSJ thru the fcst period. The latest 08/12z TJSJ upper air sounding indicated ENE winds at 11-22 kts blo 2500 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 10:30 AM, RAWS stations across SW PR were indicating RH`s between 52%-63% and wind speeds at less than 10 mph in the southern coastal plains under a weak southerly sea breeze, and a max gust of 17 mph in Maricao. Although cloudiness and quick moving showers are increasing along portions of the Cordillera, conditions could become briefly favorable for the spread of wildfires across SW PR before the onset of afternoon shallow convection. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM AST Sat Feb 8 2025/ SYNOPSIS... Variable weather conditions will continue throughout the weekend across the local islands. Breezy to locally windy conditions will also persist. Hazardous marine conditions will persist due to wind- driven seas creating choppy conditions across most exposed waters and local passages. For the next few days, dry and breezy conditions in combination with low humidity will result in favorable conditions for fire spread today. SHORT TERM...Today through Monday... A variable weather pattern prevailed across the region, bringing periods of shower activity that mainly affected the north and northeastern parts of Puerto Rico. Breezy conditions accompanied the passing showers, under a steady 15-20 kt east-northeast wind flow. Despite the occasional rainfall, temperatures remained seasonable, with overnight lows ranging from the low to mid-70s across coastal and lower elevation areas, while higher elevations experienced cooler conditions, with temperatures dipping into the low 60s. A mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the region through the weekend, with a brief weakening expected from tonight into Sunday due to a frontal boundary well north of the region moving eastward into the northeastern Atlantic. This scenario will maintain moderate to fresh east-northeast winds, promoting breezy conditions with sustained winds in the range of 15 to 20 mph and gusty winds up to 30 mph. Given the expected conditions, the sea breeze influence will not be significant. In terms of moisture levels, low-level moisture will be the main factor for shower development, with PWAT values ranging between 1.2 to 1.4 inches. As a result, showery conditions will persist across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, these fast-moving showers are not expected to cause significant flooding. The most frequent rainfall activity will favor the north-central, northeast, and east-coastal regions of Puerto Rico, though the probability of exceeding 0.5 inches of daily accumulation remains low at around 30%. Similar weather conditions are expected on Monday, with an east- northeast flow continuing across the islands due to the influence of a broad surface high-pressure system extending from the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic. Therefore, a similar weather pattern will persist, with showers likely during the early morning and evening hours. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday... A surface high pressure extending across the northern Atlantic, will be the most dominant feature for the long term period. The presence of the surface high will maintain a tight pressure gradient, therefore, promoting breezy to windy conditions through the end of the period. Windy conditions, will promote fast moving patches of moisture reaching the islands, resulting in quick passing showers mainly across eastern and northern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Precipitable water content values are expected to remain slightly below normal in the range between 1.3 and 1.5 inches. A mid-level ridge will maintain stable and dry conditions most of the week. At this moment, no significant shower activity is anticipated. By the end of the period into the weekend, a mid-to-upper level trough will increase instability across the area. Under this pattern, and increase in rainfall activity is likely over the islands. Seasonal temperatures will remain across the region with highs in the low to mid 80s along the coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In addition, lows will remain in the range from the low to mid 70s across the coastal areas, and from the low to mid 60s in the higher elevations. AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, trade wind -RA to SHRA will continue to move at times across east located terminals through during the period. Winds will continue from the ENE at 10 knots or less, increasing 15-20 kt aft 08/13Z across all sites. MARINE... A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh east to northeast winds. This conditions will persist over the next few days resulting in choppy seas across most local waters and hazardous conditions for small craft, particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages. BEACH FORECAST... There is a moderate risk of rip currents across most beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Some localized exposed beaches along the north and northeast coasts may present a higher threat due to bathymetric features or jetties along the shore. Beachgoers are urged to visit designated swimming areas along the exposed northern coasts of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Sunday night for AMZ711- 723. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....GRS AVIATION...DS
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