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842
FXCA62 TJSJ 161745
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
145 PM AST Mon Mar 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 PM AST Mon Mar 16 2026

* The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico coastal sections can
  expect strong easterly winds the rest of today, which may blow
  around unsecured outdoor items and create hazardous conditions,
  along with fast-moving showers.

* Hazardous marine and coastal conditions will persist through
  much of the week. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for
  several local waters, and a high risk of rip currents is
  expected for many northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico
  and the US Virgin Islands.

* Currently, an increasing moisture trend this weekend will
  enhance the chance of passing showers across Puerto Rico and the
  US Virgin Islands.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 145 PM AST Mon Mar 16 2026

Once again, this morning, we had variable conditions from mostly
sunny skies across the PR`s western half and St Croix to partly
sunny and partly cloudy skies across portions of the eastern half
of PR, and the US Virgin Islands. A strong surface high-pressure
system promoted windy conditions across the islands, with weather
stations reporting sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph or higher,
gusting to 30 to 40 mph or higher. By the afternoon, showers moved
further inland across the mountainous interior and western Puerto
Rico. Maximum temperatures ranged from the mid- to upper 80s along
the coast to the lower 80s across the mountains.

For this afternoon, windy conditions will persist, with gusts up
to 40 mph, so the Wind Advisory continues in effect through this
evening for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Under this wind
flow, brief periods of moderate to locally heavy rain will affect
mainly the US Virgin Islands and windward areas of PR, producing
ponding in poorly drained areas. However, expect periods of
sunshine and mostly clear skies overnight. Limited showers will
reach western PR, but most activity is expected over windward
locations. By this evening, moisture will drop, limiting shower
activity, though some showers will arrive occasionally across
these windward locations.

The stable weather pattern due to a mid-level high pressure will
hold across the local Caribbean Region. At the surface, a strong
high-pressure system spreading from the western to the central
Atlantic will tighten the local pressure gradient, extending
breezy to windy conditions across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands. Under the aforementioned weather pattern, the primary
hazards during this period will be wind-related conditions.
Additionally, an easterly perturbation will arrive around Tuesday
morning into the afternoon, promoting showery weather, mainly
across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands. However, we expect periods without rain, under pleasant
tropical conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 250 AM AST Mon Mar 16 2026

A surface high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will
maintain a moderate to fresh easterly to east-southeasterly breeze
early in the forecast before the pressure gradient gradually weakens
ahead of a frontal boundary and associated pre-frontal trough
approaching from the northwest. Winds will veer from easterly
Thursday to more southerly Friday and Saturday, before becoming more
variable and trending northerly by Sunday as the boundary and its
pre-frontal trough move across or near the region. Aloft, a mid- to
upper-level ridge initially over the northeastern Caribbean will
gradually shift southeastward as a polar trough moves into the
western Atlantic and then lifts east-northeastward. This evolution
may also allow a segment of the subtropical jet to extend southward
and remain positioned north of the local islands. At the same time,
the trade wind cap will slowly weaken while the atmospheric column
progressively moistens. Precipitable water values will begin
Thursday slightly below normal with moisture mainly confined below
700 mb, but will increase through Friday as moisture extends deeper
into the column. By Saturday and Sunday, widespread above-normal
moisture and deeper tropical humidity are expected. Low-level
temperatures will remain near seasonal values initially with warm
afternoons, followed by a gradual warming trend into the weekend,
with the warmest conditions likely Friday and Saturday as southerly
flow strengthens.

Hazards early in the forecast will mainly be wind-driven. Thursday
will still feature breezy conditions, with sustained winds generally
around 1721 knots promoting fast-moving trade wind showers mainly
across windward areas. As the pressure gradient weakens and winds
gradually decrease Friday into the weekend, the hazard focus will
shift. The combination of lighter winds, weakening trade wind
inversion, increasing instability, and deep tropical moisture will
favor slower-moving showers and locally heavier rainfall. As a
result, the potential for excessive rainfall and localized flooding
may gradually increase from Friday into the weekend as the pre-
frontal trough and frontal boundary approach and move through the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM AST Mon Mar 16 2026

VFR conditions will persist for all TAF sites during the period.
Sfc winds will persist from E up to 25 knots and even
occasionally higher gusty winds until 16/22Z. SFC winds will
persist up to 10 knots during night for TJSJ, TJPS, TJBQ, and
slightly high for TISX & TIST, at 17/14Z winds will increase
again. some VCSH to -RA are possible during the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM AST Mon Mar 16 2026

A strong high-pressure system moving eastward from the western to
the central Atlantic will tighten the local pressure gradient,
leading to fresh to strong easterly winds. As a result, mariners
can expect choppy to rough seas across the regional waters for
much of the week. An easterly perturbation will increase shower
activity across the regional waters around Tuesday. A frontal
boundary along the eastern seaboard, moving eastward, will
approach the northeast Caribbean, easing the pressure gradient
from Thursday through the end of the workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 145 PM AST Mon Mar 16 2026

Beach conditions will remain dangerous for inexperienced
beachgoers across most of the local islands, as breezy to windy
easterly winds will generate choppy to rough seas across regional
waters, increasing wave action along exposed beaches. As a result,
a high risk of rip currents will persist for much of the exposed
beaches of the islands.

Beachgoers should remain alert to changing coastal conditions and
continue monitoring the latest forecasts and statements. For
additional information, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001>003-
     005-007-008-011>013.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001>013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-726-733-735-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST this evening for AMZ745.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGE/SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...CAM
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...LIS

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion