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360
FXCA62 TJSJ 300649
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
249 AM AST Fri Oct 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 AM AST Fri Oct 30 2026

* Another active afternoon expected for the interior and western
  Puerto Rico. There is a risk for urban and small stream flooding
  and frequent lightning.

* Showers activity is expected to increase late Saturday and
  Sunday, but the confidence in how strong or widespread the
  showers may be has decreased since yesterday.

* Hot conditions will persist across the islands, with a level of
  heat that mainly affects those individuals that are extremely
  sensitive, outdoors and without adequate hydration.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 208 AM AST Fri Oct 30 2026

The night was mostly tranquil for the area, with only a few
showers reaching the Virgin Islands at times. Skies were clear
across Puerto Rico. Temperatures dropped to the low 80s and upper
70s in coastal areas, and near 60 in the Cordillera Central.

The most recent satellite-derived precipitable water product shows
that, while there is still plenty of moisture around, an area of
slightly drier air is filtering in. At the surface, there is also
a weak disturbance moving just south of the local islands. Aloft,
the axis of a trough is centered just north of Venezuela. Also, a
surface high pressure will maintain the surface winds from the
southeast today and tomorrow, at 9-13 kts, and from the east on
Sunday. For today, while conditions are not as favorable for
convection as yesterday, local effects should still trigger
showers and thunderstorms across the interior and west in the
afternoon. There is a risk for urban and small stream flooding, as
well as frequent lightning activity. Passing showers are expected
elsewhere, including the Virgin Islands.

For the weekend, the trough centered just to the north of
Venezuela will lift moisture from the Caribbean Sea, especially at
the mid levels. While this set-up will usually result in
significant shower activity, there is going to be dry air
intrusion at the lower levels and plenty of clouds at the upper
levels. Compared to yesterday, the confidence in the forecast has
decreased. However, the probability of precipitation was left at
50-70%, since at least some showers are expected to reach the
islands during this period. For now, the period with the higher
chance of showers is from Saturday late afternoon into the early
morning hours of Sunday. After that, another slot of dry air is
expected to filter in, and rain should be mainly focused in the
interior and west portions of Puerto Rico.

In terms of heat, 925 mb temperatures remain above normal, by
nearly one standard deviation. Heat indices in general should
range from 102 to 107 degrees, although isolated areas could
observed higher indices. Regardless, the users are advised to take
plenty of breaks from outdoor activities and to stay hydrated.


&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 208 AM AST Fri Oct 30 2026

The forecast remains on track with a wet and humid pattern expected
through the long-term period. Abundant moisture will promote
unsettled weather and the potential for shower activity.
Precipitable water values will remain above normal for this time of
year, sitting at the 75th percentile for November and ranging
between 2.00 and 2.40 inches through much of the period.

At the surface, a high-pressure system migrating from the U.S. East
Coast into the central Atlantic will maintain an easterly to
southeasterly wind flow. By Wednesday, winds will gradually shift to
the south-southeast. Late Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level
trough to the west of the islands will cause the local pressure
gradient to relax, resulting in a weak, southerly wind flow.

From Tuesday onward, guidance indicates a gradual warming of mid-
level temperatures at 500 mb, which should limit the development of
thunderstorms across the region. However, as winds become light by
midweek, any developing showers will be slow-moving. This will
increase the risk of localized flooding, particularly across
portions of central and northern Puerto Rico during the afternoon
hours. Confidence in the overall rainfall coverage and intensity
remains uncertain, as upper-level dynamics may become less favorable
and afternoon convection will heavily depend on lingering cloud
cover and the amount of daytime heating. Overall, a typical diurnal
weather pattern is expected. Passing showers will move across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern to southeastern Puerto Rico during
the overnight and morning hours. During the afternoons, convection
will develop across the interior, western, and northern portions of
Puerto Rico, with localized showers and streamers developing
downwind of El Yunque and the local islands on most days. Periods of
heavy rainfall could lead to urban and small stream flooding and
quick river rises.

At the 925 mb level, temperatures will remain above normal through
most of the period. The warmest days are expected by midweek, as the
southeasterly to southerly winds brings in deeper moisture. This
combination will result in warm conditions and elevated heat indices
across the region. Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay
hydrated and continue monitoring the forecast for updates as model
guidance becomes more consistent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 AM AST Fri Oct 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through at least 17Z.
Passing SHRA will persist across the local waters, but with
little to no impacts to operations. SHRA and TSRA are expected
again along the Cordillera Central and western Puerto Rico.
Mountain obscuration is expected. For TJBQ, reduced VIS and low
ceilings expected from 17-22Z. Winds are from the SE at 9-13 kts
with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations from 14-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM AST Fri Oct 30 2026

A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to
promote moderate east to southeasterly winds across the regional
waters over the next few days. Meanwhile, the long-period northerly
swell affecting the local waters is expected to gradually subside
today. Nevertheless, choppy conditions may persist across portions
of the offshore waters and local passages.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon hours, particularly over the waters north and
west of Puerto Rico. These showers and thunderstorms may produce
locally gusty winds and brief periods of reduced visibility.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 208 AM AST Fri Oct 30 2026

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the northern beaches
of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands,
today and through the weekend. This means life-threatening rip
currents are possible in the surf zone. Beachgoers should remain
cautious.

Additionally, the ongoing period of exceptionally high tides will
continue through at least today. Localized coastal flooding will
remain possible around the time of high tide, particularly along
susceptible, low-lying shorelines, with the highest tide expected
late this morning.

Lastly, afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast.
If you hear thunder, seek shelter immediately inside a sturdy
building.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ERG
LONG TERM....GRS
MARINE/BEACH...YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion