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698
FXCA62 TJSJ 090747 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
347 AM AST Mon Nov 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 231 AM AST Mon Nov 9 2026

* The urban and small-stream flooding threat will remain elevated
  across the interior of Puerto Rico this afternoon. Isolated
  flash flooding and mudslides in steep terrain cannot be ruled
  out due to saturated soils.

* Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with occasional passing
  showers are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Northeast swells will maintain a high risk of life-threatening
  rip currents along northern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra
  through Tuesday afternoon.

* Southeast winds and hot temperatures along urban and coastal
  areas will return from midweek onward. Afternoon thunderstorms
  will shift towards the west/northwest quadrant of PR.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 231 AM AST Mon Nov 9 2026

A deep tropical moisture pool with precipitable water values above
2.00 inches remains pooled across the northeastern Caribbean under
a very weak low-level pressure gradient. Intense daytime heating,
combined with local sea breeze convergence and terrain effects,
will produce strong, slow-moving showers and thunderstorms across
interior, northern, and western Puerto Rico each afternoon through
Tuesday. Rainfall accumulations of 1.50 to 2.50 inches across
these sectors will create hazardous driving conditions, urban and
small-stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and mudslides in
steep terrain. The U.S. Virgin Islands will remain on the
periphery of this activity, with shower impacts limited to mostly
light passing showers.

The combination of high moisture content, 925 mb temperatures
around 22C, and surface winds under 10 knots will create muggy
conditions before the onset of afternoon showers each day. Heat
indices are projected to range between 98 and 106 degrees
Fahrenheit across the northern, western, and southern coastal
municipalities, raising heat exhaustion concerns for outdoor
activities and vulnerable populations.

A pronounced shift to much drier, more stable conditions is
expected on Wednesday as high pressure builds across the western
Atlantic and the moisture plume pulls away from the region. Mid-
level relative humidity will drop sharply below 50 percent, and
precipitable water content will fall below 1.80 inches, as a
strong trade wind inversion establishes and suppresses convective
development across PR. A seasonal trade wind shower pattern will
return as east to southeast trade winds strengthen to 10 to 15
knots, primarily impacting windward coastal areas and the USVI
during the night and early morning hours.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 231 AM AST Mon Nov 9 2026

The long-term forecast remains on track, with weather conditions
becoming more stable by late this weekend. A surface high pressure
building over the Central Atlantic should increase local pressure
gradient, with strengthening winds from the S-SE. The latest
model guidance suggests abundant tropical moisture moving into the
region early Thursday and Friday, with PWAT values up to 1.75
inches, typical for this time of the year. However, moisture
content should gradually diminish as a drier air mass filters in
the mid-levels on Saturday and Sunday, limiting deep convection.
In the mid and upper levels, the nearby short-wave troughs should
introduce troughiness across the area on Thursday and Friday, with
slightly cool mid-level temperatures (around -6 C), allowing
cloud growth. However, a building ridge northeast of the CWA
should dominate the weather pattern in the weekend, warming mid-
level temperatures (up to -4 and
-5 C), leading to subsidence and stability aloft. Additionally, the
Galvez-Davison Index suggest the potential for thunderstorms across
the local area mainly on Thursday and Friday, while Saturday and
Sunday should become more shallow in the afternoons. The latest
model solutions suggest a frontal boundary approaching the northern
Caribbean by Sunday, though the best area of deep convection should
remain outside the CWA. Overall, showers are likely to move during
the night and morning hours, particularly across windward sections
of the islands, followed by afternoon convection, particularly
across interior and northwestern/northern Puerto Rico. As mentioned
above, the best opportunity for deeper convection is Thursday and
Friday, with mainly ponding of water over roadways and poorly
drained areas, along with isolated urban and small stream flooding.

Under a S-SE wind flow, the latest model guidance suggest warmer
than normal 925 mb temperatures across the CWA. With the available
moisture, heat indices could easily exceed 100 F, particularly
across urban and low-lying areas of the islands during the peak
hours of the day. Therefore, the heat threat will remain limited to
elevated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 AM AST Mon Nov 9 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals during
the next 24 hours. However, locally induced afternoon SHRA/TSRA over
the interior of PR will drift towards coastal areas, producing
VCTS across the PR terminals, and may cause tempo MVFR to brief
IFR conds at TJSJ btw 09/18-21z. Light and variable winds early
through the morning hours, turning more ESE aft 09/14z with weak
sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM AST Mon Nov 9 2026

The northeasterly swell will maintain offshore Atlantic seas at 4 to
5 feet today. As the low pressure northeast of the region moves
eastward, surface high pressure will begin to build across the
western Atlantic. This pattern will result in light to gentle winds
across the eastern Caribbean that will gradually become easterly
today and Tuesday, then increase to moderate by Wednesday onward.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 3 to 5
feet, while seas in the Caribbean remain at 1 to 3 feet. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 231 AM AST Mon Nov 9 2026

Energy from a northeasterly swell will continue to impact the
Atlantic waters and local passages, producing breaking waves of 5 to
8 feet along the western to eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and
Culebra. This means life-threatening rip currents are likely in the
surf zones. Additional pulses of northeasterly swell will likely
arrive Tuesday afternoon. As a result, the high risk of rip
currents was extended through at least Tuesday afternoon. Continue
to monitor the forecast for updates. A moderate risk of rip
currents also remains along the beaches of Vieques and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Remain cautious, as rip currents are possible.

Another beach hazard will be thunderstorms, particularly during the
afternoon hours. If thunder is heard, seek shelter immediately.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010-012.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM....MNG
AVIATION...DSR
MARINE/BEACH...YZR/DSR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion