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787
FXCA62 TJSJ 221838
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
238 PM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 237 PM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

* East to southeast winds will bring passing showers to windward
  areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through
  Monday, with isolated afternoon showers possible across interior
  and western Puerto Rico.

* There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents along
  north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
  Virgin Islands.

* Above-normal temperatures will persist across lower elevations
  of the islands through at least Tuesday.

* Rain chances will increase by Tuesday afternoon into mid-week,
  along with a limited flood threat. Continue to monitor the
  forecast for updates.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 238 PM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Mostly fair weather conditions have prevailed this morning across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In the late morning
hours, a few light passing showers moved near the USVI and eastern
sectors of Puerto Rico, leaving minimal accumulations. Winds have
been blowing from the east to southeast at around 10 to 18 mph,
with occasional higher gusts and sea breeze variations. Daytime
high temperatures are in the mid-80s across most coastal and low-
elevation areas of Puerto Rico, as well as in the USVI, with some
upper 80s across western and southern Puerto Rico. Higher
elevations are experiencing temperatures in the upper 70s.

The synoptic pattern remains on track. The latest weather models
continue to show a low- to mid-level ridge dominating the region
through the rest of today, gradually moving eastward into the
central Atlantic on Monday. A high-pressure system across the
central to eastern Atlantic is promoting a local east to southeast
wind flow, gradually shifting more from the southeast to south
through at least early Tuesday. Satellite-derived PWAT data
indicate a near-normal to drier than normal airmass, with values
mainly around 1.3 inches or lower. The pattern will remain
consistent through at least tomorrow. As a result, stable weather
conditions are expected tonight into Monday, with a few light
passing showers during the morning hours driven by the wind flow,
and limited afternoon shower development across western Puerto
Rico, if any.

By Tuesday, a col area and pre-frontal trough are expected to
develop over the local area, bringing a change in the weather
pattern as reflected by increasing rain chances. Moisture content
will sharply increase across the region, reaching above-normal
levels based on climatological data, up to 1.70 to 1.80 inches.
Colder 500 mb temperatures near -9 degrees C will likely support
the development of isolated thunderstorms. Therefore, an increase
in cloudiness and shower activity is expected across the forecast
area.

Temperature-wise, daytime maximums are expected to range from the
mid-80s to low 90s across the lower elevations of the islands, and
from the mid-70s across the higher elevations. Minimum temperatures
will range from the low 60s in higher elevations to the upper 60s
and low 70s across lower elevations. The 925 mb temperature outlook
indicates above-normal temperatures throughout most of the short-
term period, followed by a decrease to near-average values around
Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 230 AM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Unstable conditions are expected at the beginning of the long-term
period as a pre-frontal trough associated with an approaching
frontal boundary moves northwest of the area and north of
Hispaniola. By Wednesday, the surface influence of the frontal band
will persist, bringing abundant moisture and cloudiness into the
region with precipitable water values rounding in the 1.7 inches.
At the upper and mid-levels, a 65-knot jet streak aloft and mid-
level temperatures between -8 and -9 C will further enhance
atmospheric instability. As a result, widespread cloudiness is
expected across northern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, with thunderstorm activity possible within the heaviest
showers. From Thursday into Friday, lingering moisture associated
with the remnants of the frontal boundary will remain in place;
however, high pressure over the central Atlantic will gradually
become the dominant weather feature. As this high strengthens and
extends into the Caribbean, the pressure gradient will tighten,
leading to moderate to locally strong easterly winds from Thursday
through Sunday. Although shower activity will continue, faster
steering flow will promote quick-moving showers with minimal
rainfall accumulations, and no flood threat is anticipated.

From Saturday into Sunday, a more stable weather pattern will return
to the local area as the surface high strengthens over the Central
Atlantic and a mid-to upper-level ridge becomes established
across the region. Although moisture associated with the previous
frontal boundary will have moved out of the area, wind-advected
cloudiness and patches of moisture driven by a strong pressure
gradient across the Central Atlantic will continue to reach the
islands. Model guidance suggests precipitable water values may
surpass the 75th percentile during this period, supporting a
showery pattern despite the generally stable regime. As a result,
breezy to locally windy conditions are expected under a persistent
easterly wind flow, with fast-moving trade wind showers affecting
windward portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico during the early morning hours, followed by afternoon
convection across the interior and western Puerto Rico. This
pattern of breezy conditions and passing showers is expected to
persist through the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 238 PM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. A patch of clouds moving from
the east will bring SCT to brief BKN ceilings across eastern
terminals, JSJ/JPS/ISX, through this evening. Additionally, some
showers will develop near JBQ between 22/20z and 23/00z. Winds
will prevail from ESE with sea breeze variations through 22/23z,
becoming calm to light and VRB after that. Winds will become even
more SE at 10-15kt after 23/13z. A similar wx pattern can be
expected tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

A surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic will
maintain moderate to locally fresh east to east-southeast winds
through tonight. Winds will gradually veer from the southeast to
south through Tuesday, when a col region and a pre-frontal trough
develops over the local area. As a result, by Tuesday into mid-
week, a surge of moisture and a frontal boundary positioned to the
northwest, will increase shower activity and the potential for
isolated thunderstorms. Additionally, a long-period northwesterly
swell is expected to spread into the local Atlantic waters by
midweek, resulting in deteriorating marine conditions and building
seas up to 8 feet through the end of the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 238 PM AST Sun Feb 22 2026

Beachgoers can expect a moderate risk of rip currents through
Tuesday, mainly along the north- and east-facing beaches of Puerto
Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix. While the risk is not high, life-threatening
rip currents remain possible, especially near piers, jetties, and
reef channels. A long-period northwesterly swell will begin to
arrive late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. As this
swell builds, the risk of rip currents will increase to high
beginning Wednesday and continuing thereafter.

From Wednesday onward, coastal conditions will deteriorate with
hazardous breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents expected
across most north- and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. These conditions will be dangerous for swimmers
and inexperienced beachgoers.

If you plan to visit the beach from Wednesday onward, consider
beaches along Puerto Rico`s Caribbean coastline or those with
southern exposure, where the risk of rip currents is expected to be
lower than on north-facing, exposed beaches. Always check local
conditions before entering the water. Further updates will be issued
as conditions evolve. For safety reminders, remember to swim near a
lifeguard when possible, never swim alone, and if caught in a rip
current, remain calm and float. Do not swim directly against the
currents.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...YZR
LONG TERM...GRS
AVIATION/BEACH...CAM

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion