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189
FXCA62 TJSJ 131758
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
158 PM AST Fri Nov 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 158 PM AST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Breezy conditions will persist for the rest of today and
  tomorrow across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
  Unsecured items may blow around.

- Hot and humid conditions will persist across the islands over
  the next few days. Sensitive individuals should remain hydrated
  and seek indoors during peak daytime heating hours.

- Moisture content at low-levels, diurnal heating and local
  effects could still support brief showers and thunderstorm
  development over the next few days each afternoon over southern
  and northwestern PR.

- A moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents will continue
  through Monday across most local beaches, improving gradually
  by Monday onwards.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 158 PM AST Fri Nov 13 2026

Fair weather has prevailed across the islands this afternoon, though
breezy conditions ramped up earlier today, with weather stations
over the mountainous regions of Puerto Rico recording wind gusts
up to 40 mph. A surface high-pressure system over the central
Atlantic will continue to tighten the local pressure gradient,
promoting a breezy south-southeast wind flow today and tomorrow
that may blow around unsecured items. Consequently, while low-
level moisture will remain at seasonal levels over the next two
days, these brisk winds will limit high rainfall accumulations
through at least tomorrow. Mid-level subsidence driven by a ridge
will further suppress deep convection during the weekend, however,
diurnal heating and local effects may trigger isolated activity.
As a result, the most likely scenario today into the weekend
consists of shallow, short-lived showers and isolated
thunderstorms each afternoon. This activity will focus primarily
over southern and northwestern Puerto Rico, alongside possible
passing morning showers across windward sections tomorrow. Because
these showers will be fast-moving, rainfall accumulations are
expected to remain at or below half an inch. On Sunday, although
the wind flow speed will slightly decrease, continued mid-level
subsidence and precipitable water values dropping below-seasonal
values (1.001.40 inches) will promote mostly fair weather, though
isolated, brief shower activity cannot be ruled out.

Given these conditions, the primary concern over the next several
days and into early next week will be heat-related risks. Above-
normal 925 mb temperatures exceeding two standard deviations above
average, limited cloud cover, and seasonal low-level moisture today
and tomorrow will combine to create hot and humid conditions,
pushing heat indices to levels capable of affecting most heat-
sensitive individuals. While breezy winds today and tomorrow may
help temper peak heat indices, particularly across interior portions
of Puerto Rico, heat risks will expand across most of the CWA over
the weekend. Therefore, heat-sensitive individuals are encouraged to
stay hydrated and seek cooler environments during peak daytime
heating hours.


&&

.Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)...
Issued at 435 AM AST Fri Nov 13 2026

Next week`s weather will be influenced by intermittent easterly
disturbances dragging pulses of moisture into the islands until
Wednesday, which will maintain moisture content at seasonal to above-
seasonal levels by the first half of the week. However, a persistent
mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean will promote
subsidence at the mid-levels which may be a limiting factor to
deeper convection. The first pulse of moisture should arrive on
Monday morning, which will enhance showers across windward sections
and localized afternoon convection over the interior to western
portions of Puerto Rico driven by a gentle to moderate easterly wind
flow. Lingering moisture on Tuesday will promote a similar pattern.
Winds are forecasted to change to a more ESE flow by Wednesday
onwards, promoting shower and thunderstorm development towards
northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. On Thursday morning, a patch
with less moisture content should reach the CWA, nonetheless,
moisture content should remain at seasonal levels. Seasonal moisture
in the low-levels, diurnal heating and topographic effects could
promote activity towards the northern and northwestern portions of
Puerto Rico. This scenario will maintain a slight risk of flooding
until Wednesday. Hence, a threat of ponding of water over roadways
and poorly drained areas, along with isolated urban and small stream
flooding will be present during the first half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 158 PM AST Fri Nov 13 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected across all terminals thru the fcst period,
with no sig wx impacts anticipated. SE-S winds at 10-15 kt with sea
breeze variations and gusts up to 18-24 kt thru 13/22-23Z. Winds
bcmg lighter overnight, then incr aft 14/13-14Z with gusts up to 20-
23 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM AST Fri Nov 13 2026

A surface high-pressure extending from the east to the central
Atlantic Ocean is promoting a fresh to strong SSE breeze across the
local waters. This will lead to choppy to locally high seas from
today into Saturday. By Sunday the SSE breeze will become moderate
to locally fresh and lead to moderate to choppy seas. With
significant wave heights ranging from 3-6 feet and occasionally
reaching 7 feet across the offshore waters and local passages.
Conditions will gradually improve into early next week but will
still remain breezy. Showers and thunderstorm activity may produce
locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 158 PM AST Fri Nov 13 2026

Wind driven seas are leading to a moderate risk of life-threatening
rip currents along the majority of the beaches of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. This level of threat will persist into the
remainder of the forecast period. Nonetheless, conditions will
improve in the beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands and western Puerto
Rico by Sunday, and for southern Puerto Rico and Vieques by early
next week.

Beachgoers should exercise caution when swimming at the beach and
remain updated with the latest forecasts as they become available.
While showers and thunderstorms will be less likely over the weekend
along the CWA localized showers and thunderstorms especially along
the western and northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico during the
afternoons. If you hear thunder seek shelter immediately. Remain
weather ready and alert with the latest forecasts as they become
available.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/KEY MESSAGES...JCP
LONG TERM....JCP
BEACH/MARINE...RVM
AVIATION...CVB

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion