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115
FXCA62 TJSJ 170701
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
301 AM AST Wed Jun 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST,
FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Jun 17 2026

* Mostly stable weather today, then periods of showers and
  thunderstorms Thursday into Friday, and again late weekend into
  early next week. Localized flooding possible in stronger storms.

* Hot conditions will continue through the period, with highest
  heat impacts in the afternoons across urban and low-lying areas.

* Elevated wildfire risk today due to dry, hot, and breezy
  conditions, with additional risk possible during drier periods
  between tropical waves.

* Saharan dust increases late in the week, bringing hazy skies
  and reduced air quality.

* Exposed beaches will see a moderate risk of rip currents today,
  with the risk increasing late in the week into the weekend as
  winds strengthen. Choppy seas will continue through the period.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Jun 17 2026

A generally stable weather pattern will persist through tonight as
a drier air mass gradually builds into the region. Brief passing
showers will remain possible across windward areas, while
lingering moisture ahead of the drier air mass may support
isolated showers and thunderstorms across western and interior
Puerto Rico this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop could
produce locally heavy rainfall, resulting in ponding of water on
roads and very localized flooding impacts.

Moisture associated with a weak tropical wave will increase across
the region Thursday into Friday. However, moisture levels are
expected to remain near seasonal normals, while persistent dry air
aloft and a moderate Saharan dust plume will limit rainfall
coverage and intensity. As a result, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible, particularly during the
afternoon hours, with localized flooding possible following
thunderstorm development but widespread flooding not anticipated.

The primary concern today will be an elevated fire weather risk
across southern and western Puerto Rico due to dry fuels, hot
temperatures, low humidity values, and breezy easterly winds.
Additional hazards through the period will include heat, breezy to
locally windy conditions, limited lightning and localized flooding
impacts, and increasing haze late in the week. Heat impacts may
become more noticeable Thursday and Friday as moisture levels
increase.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Jun 17 2026

Over the weekend, a broad surface high-pressure system over the
central Atlantic will maintain a typical easterly trade wind
pattern across the northeastern Caribbean. A relatively dry air
mass and intermittent intrusions of Saharan dust will support
generally stable weather conditions, hazy skies at times, and warm
to locally hot daytime temperatures. Passing showers embedded
within the trade wind flow will continue, mainly across windward
areas, but rainfall accumulations are expected to remain light.

By early to mid next week, moisture associated with a tropical
wave will increase across the region, resulting in a more humid
and unsettled pattern. This will support periods of showers and
isolated thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours
across portions of western and interior Puerto Rico. While a few
locally heavy showers cannot be ruled out, widespread hazardous
weather is not expected.

Thereafter, a gradual return to a drier air mass is expected as
the Atlantic ridge reestablishes a typical trade wind pattern.
This will favor generally fair and warm conditions with passing
showers embedded in the easterly flow and limited afternoon
convection.

The primary hazards through the long-term period will include
periods of elevated heat, occasional Saharan dust intrusions,
strengthening trade winds at times, and localized impacts from
isolated showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Jun 17 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the
forecast period. VCSH with brief -SHRA is possible near TJSJ
through 17/14Z, with VCTS near TJBQ between 17/17Z-20Z and VCSH
across USVI terminals after 17/21Z. Light Saharan dust will
maintain locally hazy skies with minimal VIS impacts. E winds will
increase to 15-20 kt with higher gusts and sea-breeze variations
between 17/14Z-23Z, becoming 10 kt or less overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Jun 17 2026

Breezy to locally fresh east to east-southeast winds will maintain
choppy seas through the period. Small craft should exercise
caution. Winds may strengthen further Thursday into Friday as a
tropical wave moves through the eastern Caribbean. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms may also increase, with lightning, gusty
winds, and locally hazardous seas possible near thunderstorms.
Saharan dust arriving Thursday will result in hazy skies and
reduced visibility at times.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Jun 17 2026

A low to moderate risk of rip currents will persist through the
next several days, with moderate risk beaches mainly along the
north coast of Puerto Rico and exposed east-facing beaches of the
local islands. The moderate risk will expand late in the week as
east to east-southeast winds strengthen. Beachgoers should also
remain alert for dangerous lightning near isolated thunderstorms.
Saharan dust arriving Thursday afternoon will result in hazy skies
and reduced air quality, while elevated heat indices will continue
through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Jun 17 2026

A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for today, with the
greatest fire danger expected from the late morning through the
afternoon across portions of southern Puerto Rico. While some
uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the driest air,
conditions are expected to become progressively drier during the
next 6 to 12 hours. Combined with hot temperatures, breezy
easterly winds, and critically dry fuels, any fire that develops
could spread rapidly.

Fire weather conditions are expected to fluctuate during the next
several days as tropical waves move through the region Thursday
into Friday and again Sunday into Monday. While these systems may
bring periods of showers, rainfall is expected to remain localized
and unlikely to provide widespread relief to dry fuels,
particularly across the most fire-prone areas. Between these
waves, drier air and breezy conditions may support periods of
elevated fire danger across portions of Puerto Rico.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

EVE...LIS/MRR
MID...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion