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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
025 FXCA62 TJSJ 140653 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 253 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2026 - Passing showers and thunderstorms expected mainly across the local waters. This activity may reach portions of the US Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours, and across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon. - A tropical wave is expected to reach the region by Wednesday night increasing the potential for the development of deep convection into Thursday. Elevating the flood risk in general across the islands. - The heat risk for today remains limited and is forecasted to be elevated on Tuesday and Wednesday. - There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the north-facing beaches of PR today, and a low risk elsewhere. && .Short Term(Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2026 Passing showers have moved across the the US Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico and northern offshore waters over the morning hours with minimal accumulation. Following the departure of elevated concentrations of Saharan Dust over the weekend, a moister air mass has entered the region bringing precipitable water (PWAT) values back to seasonal levels (around 2 inches). Model guidance shows a moister atmospheric column and cooler mid-tropospheric temperatures (between -7 and -8 degrees Celsius) than in previous days making the thermodynamic environment more amenable for the development of showers and thunderstorms. An upper-level low pressure system located to the west-northwest of Puerto Rico along with ESE wind flow may also provide the necessary instability for the development of deep convection throughout the day. Following this increase in instability and in combination with the local effects (diurnal heating, local orographic effects, and sea-breeze convergence), we forecast scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. We expect the focus of this rainfall activity to be over the eastern portion of Puerto Rico during the morning hours and over the interior and western regions during the afternoon. This limited shower activity may lead to the ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas with a low change of urban and small streams flooding. A similar pattern in rainfall is expected for Tuesday driven by a surge in low- level tropical moisture passing south of the forecast area. A drier air mass will reach the region on Wednesday morning dropping PWAT values down to 1.5 inches. The mid-levels will be particularly dry, limiting the potential for the development of shower and thunderstorm activity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may still be posible over the western region of Puerto Rico driven by local effects. However, this pattern will quickly shift as a tropical wave will be reaching the region by the end of the short term period on Wednesday night, elevating PWAT values up to 2.2 inches across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and increasing the potential for the development of deep convection into Thursday. The heat risk for today remains limited. This level of heat affects primarily those individuals with extreme sensitivity to heat, especially when outdoors without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. The heat risk is expected to increase on Tuesday and Wednesday to an elevated level with possible impacts to some health systems and in heat-sensitive industries. We recommend that individuals be cautions when pursuing outdoor activities and to remain well hydrated. && .Long Term(Thursday through Monday)... Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2026 The long-term forecast remains on track, with the highest flooding threat on Thursday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic should maintain an E- SE wind flow throughout the forecast period, weakening by the next weekend. The latest model guidance suggests abundant tropical moisture associated with a tropical wave moving across the CWA, with PWAT values above seasonal values (most likely between 2.0 - 2.2 inches, medium chance of reaching 2.4 inches). Additionally, the soundings are tending to be skinny, with low-and mid-level moisture higher than usual (up to 70 and 80%). Although a mid-to- high-level ridge is in the vicinity, model guidance still suggests areas of enhanced vorticity across the CWA, particularly early Thursday. The most likely scenario remains the same, with showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across sections of the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern/southeastern Puerto Rico early in the morning, followed by afternoon convection across western/northwestern Puerto Rico if cloud cover allows it. Mainly fair weather is expected on Friday, as the latest NASA AOT model suggests a SAL reaching the CWA, with a dry slot in the H8 - H7 level. Although local effects and daytime heating can enhance convection, it should remain limited. As the Saharan dust concentrations depart the local area, Saturday and Sunday should have a seasonal weather pattern, as an area of moisture arrives across the area, with PWAT values between 1.8 and 2.0 inches. In the high levels, an upper-level trough is likely to approach the eastern Caribbean, weakening the ridge and introducing instability. With weakening winds, afternoon convection may linger more in the mountain ranges of Puerto Rico, increasing flood potential. Once again, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are still forecast each day, with most of the activity across interior and western/northwestern Puerto Rico on Thursday and Friday, while Saturday and Sunday should remain across interior Puerto Rico. As mentioned above, Thursday has the highest flooding potential, with urban and small stream flooding across interior and northwestern Puerto Rico and minor flooding across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern/southeastern Puerto Rico. Seasonal warmer conditions are expected in the long-term, with the hottest period by next weekend. Urban and low-lying areas can expect maximum temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s, with heat indices above 100 F, affecting sensitive groups. The heat threat will remain elevated throughout most of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, locally induced SHRA/TSRA developing over the western interior of PR may lead to tempo MVFR conds at TJBQ/TJPS btw 14/18-22z. East winds 12-16 kt with sea breeze variations and stronger gusts at times expected from 14/13-22z. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2026 Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds will continue across the regional waters through much of the week, maintaining moderate chops to choppy seas. Passing moisture associated with a trade wind perturbation will support an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms through Tuesday. A tropical wave is forecast to approach the eastern Caribbean on Wednesday and move across the region through Thursday, bringing another increase in showers and thunderstorms. Conditions should gradually improve on Friday as the wave moves west of the local area, while moderate easterly trades persist. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 240 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue today along much of the north-facing coastline of Puerto Rico, with some eastern beaches also affected. By Tuesday, the moderate risk will become more confined to portions of the northern coast. Life-threatening rip currents are possible within the surf zone where a moderate risk is forecast. Beachgoers should also remain alert for thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoon, particularly across western Puerto Rico. Lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds may produce rapidly changing conditions near the coast. If thunder is heard, leave the beach and seek safe shelter immediately. The rip current risk should become more localized Wednesday and Thursday, with a moderate risk mainly across portions of the offshore islands and U.S. Virgin Islands. A tropical wave could bring another increase in showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. By Friday, a moderate rip current risk is forecast to return to portions of the northern coast of Puerto Rico before conditions improve and a low risk prevails across most beaches on Saturday. Even during low-risk periods, isolated stronger rip currents can occur, especially near reefs, jetties, piers, and other coastal structures. Swim near a lifeguard whenever possible. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RVM LONG TERM....MNG AVIATION...DSR BEACH/MARINE...CAM
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