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721
FXCA62 TJSJ 231750
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
150 PM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 137 PM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

 * A high risk of rip currents will persist across the northern
   and northeastern beaches of Puerto Rico until 6 PM AST this
   evening. A moderate risk will remain for the rest of the areas.

 * Hazardous marine conditions will persist with seas up to 7 feet
   across the offshore Atlantic waters through early this evening.

 * Variable weather conditions, including periods of light to
   moderate showers are expected to continue during the morning
   hours, followed by localized afternoon convection, especially
   across interior, southern and southwestern Puerto Rico through
   midweek.

 * Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, variable conditions will
   prevail with ocasional passing showers through the rest of the
   workweek.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 137 PM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

Partly to mostly cloudy skies prevailed today across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands as a frontal boundary shifted eastward.
Light to moderate showers were observed, driven by the combined
influence of the front and an upper-level trough, which continues to
promote unsettled weather across the forecast area. Doppler radar
estimated accumulations between 0.30 and 0.50 inches across the
northern municipalities of Puerto Rico, with the highest totals
concentrated over the San Juan metropolitan area and adjacent
municipalities. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, rainfall remained
lighter, totaling around 0.10 inches with occasional passing
showers. Due to persistent cloud cover, daytime highs remained
slightly cooler, staying in the low 80s across the lower elevations
of Puerto Rico and the low 70s in the mountains. Highs in the U.S.
Virgin Islands reached the mid-80s.

For the remainder of the afternoon, showers will develop across the
southern municipalities of Puerto Rico, where the heaviest rains may
cause ponding on roads and in areas with poor drainage. Given the
instability associated with the upper-level trough and temperatures
at the 500 mb level reaching -8C, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out.

As the frontal boundary and upper-level trough continue to move away
from the region, residual moisture with precipitable water values
reaching 1.75 inches will maintain variable weather conditions.
Consequently, light to moderate showers will persist each morning
across eastern and northern portions of the islands, followed by
afternoon showers across the interior and southern Puerto Rico
through Tuesday as northeasterly winds prevail.

By midweek, a surface high pressure system will settle over the
central Atlantic, shifting winds from the east-southeast as it
migrates eastward across the Atlantic basin. While precipitable
water values will gradually diminish toward 1.50 inches, similar
weather patterns will persist, with afternoon showers developing
over the northwestern portions of the islands. Weather conditions
across the U.S. Virgin Islands are expected to remain variable
through the rest of the week.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)...
Issued at 317 AM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

Moisture is expected to remain elevated from Thursday through the
weekend, with precipitable water (PW) values generally in the 1.50
to 1.80 inch range or above normal values for late March. Increased
low and mid-level moisture, along with a weak mid- to upper-level
trough moving through the region and weak surface perturbations,
will support frequent periods of cloudiness and showers.
Temperatures near 500 mb are forecast to remain around 6 to 8
degrees C, indicating moderate instability. This environment may
support periods of moderate to heavy showers, particularly on
Friday. Regardless, widespread organized convection is not
anticipated. Enhanced cloud cover should limit daytime heating,
keeping high temperatures near typical seasonal values. Winds are
expected to gradually increase to 15 to 20 knots, with locally gusty
conditions in and near shower activity.

Over the weekend, unsettled conditions are expected to persist as
moisture remains elevated and weak disturbances remain near the
region. This will result in continued periods of showers or simply
increased cloud cover. Overall weather conditions will remain wet
and somewhat variable.

Conditions are expected to gradually improve during the upcoming
workweek as a drier airmass filters into the area. Shower coverage
should decrease, while temperatures remain near seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

Periods of MVFR/brief IFR conds possible in SHRA, with reduced
VIS and lower CIGs, mainly across TJSJ/TJPS thru 23/22-23Z.
VCSH will remain possible at TJSJ/TISX/TIST aft 23/23Z thru Monday
morning. N-NE winds btw 10 to 15 kts, becoming light and VRB aft
22/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 137 PM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

The proximity of a frontal boundary extending from the U.S. Virgin
Islands into the Central Atlantic will continue to promote unsettled
marine conditions today, with passing showers and a low chance of
thunderstorms across the regional waters and passages. A fading long-
period northerly swell will maintain hazardous seas across the
Atlantic waters, with the Small Craft Advisory through 6 PM AST this
afternoon. Nevertheless, the latest scatterometer scans show
moderate to locally fresh north-northeasterly winds likely to
produce choppy seas over the Atlantic offshore waters and the Mona
Passage, small craft should exercise caution. A surface high
pressure building from the western to central Atlantic will maintain
moderate northeasterly winds through the first part of the week,
strengthening and becoming moderate to locally fresh from the east
by Thursday night.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 137 PM AST Mon Mar 23 2026

Based on the latest nearshore buoy observations, seas have ranged
between 5 and 6 feet, and taking into consideration , breaking
waves between 6 and 7 feet can still be expected over northern
exposed beaches of Puerto Rico. Hence, the Rip Current Statement
remains in effect over the aforementioned beach areas through 6 PM
AST this afternoon. Beachgoers are encouraged to opt for other
beaches that remain under a moderate risk, though they must
exercise caution as life-threatening rip currents are still
possible along the surf zone. As the swell diminishes, beach
conditions will gradually improve, with a low to moderate risk
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands for the next
several days.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GRS
LONG TERM....MMC
PUBLIC/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion