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382
FXCA62 TJSJ 010742
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
342 AM AST Wed Jul 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 332 AM AST Wed Jul 1 2026

* Low to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust will persist
  through later this afternoon, resulting in slightly hazy skies.
  These concentrations are expected through at least early Friday,
  before increasing again by the 4th of July holiday.

* Limited shower activity is expected across the islands each day.
  However, localized afternoon showers and a few isolated
  thunderstorms remain possible across central and western Puerto
  Rico.

* Warm to hot conditions will continue through the next several
  days, with heat indices reaching or exceeding 105F across urban
  and low-lying areas. Stay hydrated and seek shade or air-
  conditioned areas.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM AST Wed Jul 1 2026

Overall, calm weather conditions prevailed overnight across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A few fast-moving showers passed
over portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the regional waters,
resulting in no impacts. Minimum temperatures ranged from the upper
70s to low 80s in urban and coastal areas, and from the upper 60s to
low 70s in the mountains. Winds were light and variable at 5 knots
or less.

A dense plume of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has begun to exit the
region, gradually decreasing dust concentrations. However, minor
lingering concentrations will continue to promote slightly hazy
skies. Today, precipitable water (PWAT) values are expected to
remain within seasonal averages for the beginning of July, ranging
from 1.65 to 1.80 inches. Under this pattern, seasonal weather
conditions are anticipated to persist through Thursday, supporting a
slight increase in passing morning showers over portions of eastern
Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This
will be followed by afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms
across central and western Puerto Rico, driven by a combination of
available moisture, daytime heating, and local effects.

By Friday, another dry airmass will filter into the region, causing
PWAT values to drop below seasonal norms to between 1.30 and 1.40
inches. This shift comes as a surface high-pressure system
strengthens over the central Atlantic and a mid-level ridge builds
over the local area. Over the next few days, maximum temperatures
will remain above normal across the region, reaching the upper 80s
and low 90s across coastal and urban areas, and the low to mid-80s
in the mountains. Heat indices are forecast to reach or exceed 105F
each afternoon. Residents and visitors are strongly urged to
practice heat safety by staying hydrated, limiting strenuous outdoor
activities, and taking frequent breaks in shaded or air-conditioned
areas.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 332 AM AST Wed Jul 1 2026

A transition from relatively dry and hazy conditions to a more humid
and unstable tropical pattern continues to be forecast. A surface
high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain generally
southeasterly winds, while a lingering upper-level cut-off low will
continue over the region and provide modest instability through the
period. During the weekend, shallow moisture and a plume of Saharan
dust will promote hazy skies, hot conditions, and limited rainfall.
However, brief morning showers over eastern Puerto Rico and isolated
afternoon convection across the western interior and northwestern
Puerto Rico remain possible due to local effects and daytime
heating. To start the workweek, increasing mid-level moisture will
support more active afternoon convection across western and
northwestern Puerto Rico as Saharan dust gradually decreases. By
late Monday and Tuesday, a tropical wave is expected to bring a
surge of tropical moisture, which, along with favorable upper-level
dynamics, will increase widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. This can result in localized ponding of water on
roads and in poor drainage areas. However, concentrations of Saharan
Dust will continue to filter over the region to start the workweek
and through midweek. Conditions will once again dry out on Wednesday
as Saharan Dust continues. Warm to hot conditions will persist
throughout the period as heat index values are expected to reach and
surpass the 100s over coastal and lower elevations areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 332 AM AST Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail across all TAF sites. Afternoon
SHRA/TSRA may result in VCSH/VCTS at TJBQ & TJSJ btw 01/17-23Z. HZ
due to Saharan dust will continue to reduce VSBY to near 6SM
through 01/14Z at the USVI terminals & 01/22Z at the PR terminals.
SE winds between 12-16 kt are expected with higher gusts and sea
breeze variations. Winds will become light and variable at 5-10 kt
aft 30/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 AM AST Wed Jul 1 2026

Surface high pressure over the central Atlantic and a frontal low
over the western Atlantic will continue to promote moderate, at
times locally fresh, east to east-southeasterly winds across the
regional waters through the end of the workweek. These winds will
maintain moderate seas, occasionally becoming choppy, especially
across the Atlantic waters and local passages, where small craft
should exercise caution at times. A dense Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
will gradually diminish today, but another surge of Saharan dust is
expected to arrive Friday and persist into the weekend, leading to
reduced visibility at times and deteriorating air quality.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 332 AM AST Wed Jul 1 2026

Today through Friday, the risk of rip currents is expected to remain
low across the local beaches. However, even when the overall risk is
low, life-threatening rip currents can still occur, particularly
near jetties, reefs, piers, and channels. Beachgoers should continue
to exercise caution and swim near lifeguards whenever possible. By
the weekend and into early next week, the rip current risk is
forecast to increase to moderate across many local beaches as
easterly winds strengthen and seas gradually build, making rip
currents more likely in the surf zone.

Additional beach hazards will include periods of Saharan dust,
resulting in hazy skies and reduced air quality, along with warm to
hot conditions during the daytime hours. Isolated afternoon
thunderstorms may also develop each day, particularly near the
northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRS
LONG TERM....MRR
MARINE/BEACH...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion