Hurricane Season runs from June 1-November 30
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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
020 FXCA62 TJSJ 210929 CCA AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 243 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026 * Mostly sunny skies will prevail across the islands. Fair weather, with a few passing showers possible, are expected to persist through the next couple of days. * Drier weather is expected for much of Puerto Rico, but afternoon showers will continue to develop along the interior and west each afternoon. * A moderate rip current risk is expected through midweek, mostly for north and east Puerto Rico and for the Virgin Islands. && .Short Term(Today through Thursday)... Issued at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026 Overnight, calm and mostly clear skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands under a dry and stable air mass. Winds remained light and variable, similar to previous nights. Minimum temperatures stayed into the upper 60s to low 70s across coastal areas, with cooler observations across higher terrains. No significant weather impacts were observed overnight. For today (Tuesday), a relatively drier and more stable pattern will continue as a surface high pressure system over the North Atlantic. Winds will gradually shift from easterly to east-southeasterly during the morning, then trend northeasterly by the afternoon as cold front over western Atlantic moves closer to the region. Available moisture will remain shallow, mostly confined below 700800 mb, limiting widespread rainfall potential. However, local effects and daytime heating will still support scattered afternoon showers, mainly across southwestern and southern Puerto Rico. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. While rainfall coverage will be limited compared to recent days, ponding of water in poorly drained areas and minor urban or small stream flooding remain possible, especially where soils are already saturated. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals, with highs in the mid-80s along the coast and cooler conditions in the mountains. Looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday, trade winds will continue to bring occasional patches of low-level moisture, leading to isolated to scattered passing showers, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours. Each afternoon, diurnal heating and local effects may still trigger limited convection across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico. Winds will generally remain light to moderate with a northeasterly component, and temperatures will stay near normal through the period. && .Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)... Issued at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026 A wetter and more unstable weather pattern is expected to prevail at the start of the long-term period as remnants of a frontal boundary linger near the region under southeasterly low-level flow. This pattern will promote precipitable water values near or above climatological normals. Afternoon convective development will remain possible across interior and western/northwestern Puerto Rico, aided by daytime heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence. While widespread rainfall is not anticipated on Friday, moderate rainfall may still cause localized ponding of water in urban and poorly drained areas, especially where showers persist or repeatedly affect the same locations. Through the weekend, low-level winds are forecast to veer more southerly, allowing a deeper tropical moisture plume to spread across the area while also advecting warmer temperatures into the region. This evolving pattern will likely result in above-normal daytime temperatures, particularly across coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As a result, increased heat risk is possible during the peak hours of the day, with heat indices near or slightly above 100 degrees possible in some locations. Residents and visitors should anticipate warmer and more humid conditions through the weekend period. Shower and thunderstorm coverage during the weekend will depend in part on the availability of mid-level moisture, as the latest guidance suggests some pockets of drier air aloft may intermittently limit the overall extent of convection. Nevertheless, sea breeze convergence, local effects, and stronger daytime heating may still support isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, with the greatest activity focused over interior and northern portions of Puerto Rico. Localized urban and small stream flooding will remain possible where stronger showers develop, along with brief gusty winds and frequent lightning. By early next week, a gradual increase in columnar moisture in combination with some troughiness aloft is expected to support greater areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. This should result in more numerous showers from Monday into Tuesday, with the greatest afternoon activity once again focused over interior and western/northwestern portions of Puerto Rico, while passing showers remain possible elsewhere. In this pattern, periods of locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms will be possible, increasing the potential for urban flooding, quick river rises, and localized flooding in flood-prone areas through the latter part of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026 VFR conditions across all TAF sites, as fair weather condt prevails.Prevailing winds should remain from E-NE around 10 to 15 kts gusts around 25 knots after 21/11Z or near VCTS/SHRA and with sea breeze variations. After 21/17Z winds will become E-NE. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026 A high-pressure system over the north-central Atlantic will promote gentle to moderate easterly winds, with seas in the 3 to 5 foot range today. Winds and seas will slightly diminish tonight. A weak frontal boundary north of the region, and a brief pulse of northerly swell spreading across the Atlantic waters, will cause winds to back from the northeast. As a result, seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet from Wednesday night into Thursday. Small craft should exercise caution in the offshore Atlantic waters and local passages during this time. Winds will then veer to an east to southeast direction by the end of the workweek, then becoming more southerly to end the weekend. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone) will be present at northwestern, northern, northeastern, eastern and southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico today, as well as at beaches of Vieques and St. Croix. As winds become lighter this evening into Wednesday, the risk is expected to generally decrease. However a moderate risk of rip currents will likely persist at northern PR. Even if the risk of rip currents is low in other areas, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Late Wednesday night into Thursday, a brief pulse of northerly swell is expected to spread across the Atlantic waters, and the risk is anticipated to increase to moderate or high (life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone) along the northern coastline of Puerto Rico, and to moderate along Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John. Up to a moderate risk is then expected to persist Friday through the weekend. For more information, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MMC LONG TERM...CVB BEACH FORECAST/MARINE...MRR
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