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483
FXCA62 TJSJ 130740
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
340 AM AST Sat Jun 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 340 AM AST Sat Jun 13 2026

* Generally fair weather will prevail through early next week,
  with only isolated showers, minimal flooding potential, and a
  very low risk of thunderstorms or lightning.

* Warm to hot conditions will persist, with daytime heat index
  values reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s across urban and
  coastal areas.

* Periods of Saharan dust will produce hazy skies and may reduce
  air quality for sensitive individuals.

* Breezy trade winds will create choppy marine conditions and
  maintain a moderate risk of rip currents, especially along
  north- and east-facing beaches, expanding to portions of
  southern Puerto Rico by Sunday into early next week. Across the
  U.S. Virgin Islands, gusty winds and marine conditions will
  remain the primary weather concerns.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 340 AM AST Sat Jun 13 2026

A relatively dry and stable weather pattern will persist through
early next week. Most of the available moisture will remain
confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere while the mid and
upper levels stay notably dry, limiting the potential for
widespread convection. Occasional patches of shallow moisture will
support brief passing showers across windward areas, while
periods of Saharan dust will promote hazy skies and reinforce the
stable pattern. As a result, only isolated to locally scattered
afternoon showers are expected over portions of northwestern
Puerto Rico, with any thunderstorm development remaining very
limited and driven primarily by intense daytime heating and local
effects. Brisk easterly winds will keep showers moving quickly,
further reducing rainfall accumulations and minimizing flooding
concerns.

Broad high pressure over the North Atlantic will continue to steer
an east to east-southeast trade wind flow, with occasionally windy
conditions across exposed and coastal areas. Tropical waves
passing south of the region may briefly strengthen the wind field
but are expected to have little influence on local moisture or
rainfall. The primary weather concern through the period will be
the continued warm to hot conditions, with heat index values
commonly reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s across urban and
coastal areas during the late morning and afternoon hours. While
widespread heat risks are not anticipated, residents and visitors
should continue practicing routine heat safety by staying
hydrated, seeking shade when possible, and limiting prolonged
outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day.&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 340 AM AST Sat Jun 13 2026

Surface high pressure will maintain brisk winds out of the east-
southeast through the next weekend. At the mid levels, a high is
also responsible for low relative humidities values and stable
conditions aloft. An upper level high will also move high clouds
from the Caribbean into the local islands, further hindering the
development of showers into the islands. Through at least Thursday,
expect limited shower activity, but local effects will trigger
localized showers along western Puerto Rico, where ponding of water
cannot be ruled out.

By the end of the week, an upper level low will develop northeast of
the islands, finally increasing instability aloft, with 500 mb
temperatures cooling down. This feature will combine with low level
moisture from a tropical wave or surface trough to increase the
potential of showers along the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico through the day, and across western Puerto Rico in the
afternoon. It is worth mentioning that there are some factors that
could work against a rainfall forecast, such as the position of the
upper level trough, the intrusion of mid-level dry air, Saharan dust
and high clouds reducing the amount of solar radiation. The user
should stay tuned as the forecast evolves Regardless, any rain would
be beneficial for areas experiencing abnormally dry or moderate
drought conditions in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

By the weekend, the upper level low lift toward the north and the
air mass will become stable once again. In fact, moderate
concentrations of Saharan dust are anticipated, resulting in hazy
skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 340 AM AST Sat Jun 13 2026

Mainly VFR conds will prevail at all TAF sites thru the fcst pd.
VCSH, with brief -RA, is psbl in the vcnty of TJBQ btwn 13/17Z-19Z
due to iso aftn SHRA over NW PR. Low to moderate concs of HZ will
persist acrs the local area, occasionally reducing VIS. E-ESE sfc
winds will incr to 15-20 kt with higher gusts and sea-breeze
variations fm 13/14Z-23Z, bcmg 10 kt or less ovrngt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM AST Sat Jun 13 2026

A strengthening surface high pressure system over the central
Atlantic will promote fresh trade winds and choppy marine conditions
through at least the middle of next week. Seas are expected to build
between 4 to 6 feet, occasionally higher, across the regional waters
and local passages. Small craft operators are encouraged to exercise
caution across the regional waters and local passages as seas build
and trade winds strengthen. Drier air and hazy skies associated with
low to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust will persist through
the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 340 AM AST Sat Jun 13 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail across the
northern, southern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as
Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where life-
threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone. Beachgoers
should exercise caution, always swim near a lifeguard and remember
to heed the advice of the local beach patrol and flag warning
systems. These conditions are expected to persist through the
weekend and into next week.

A low risk of rip currents will remain along the western beaches of
Puerto Rico. However, life- threatening rip currents can occur even
when the risk is low, especially near groins, jetties, reefs, and
piers. Remain cautious. For additional information and location-
specific rip current forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM AST Sat Jun 13 2026

Recent rainfall has remained well below normal across portions of
southern Puerto Rico, with no significant wetting rains observed
recently or expected through early next week. Combined with above-
critical KBDI values, increasingly dry fuels, and periods of
breezy conditions, these factors will continue to support
localized fire weather concerns, particularly across the southern
coastal plains.

However, prevailing east to east-southeasterly flow and afternoon
sea-breeze development should transport maritime moisture inland,
limiting the duration and spatial extent of critically low
relative humidity values. As a result, while localized periods of
elevated fire danger remain possible, widespread critical fire
weather conditions are not anticipated at this time.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

EVE...ERG/GRS
MID...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion