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496
FXCA62 TJSJ 021702
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
102 PM AST Sat May 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 PM AST Sat May 2 2026

* Localized showers are expected this afternoon across the
  northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico, with a limited flood threat.

* A drying trend will continue to develop, promoting generally fair
  weather conditions from Sunday into early next week, with locally
  induced afternoon showers over western Puerto Rico.

* Warmer-than-normal temperatures will persist, with heat indices
  reaching or exceeding 100 degrees F across urban and coastal areas.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along north and east-
  facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through
  at least midweek, some improvement afterwards.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 102 PM AST Sat May 2 2026

A building mid-to upper-level ridge across the northeastern
Caribbean will promote generally stable and dry conditions through
the short-term period. Latest total precipitable water (TPW)
imagery shows a relatively drier air mass over the local islands.
The latest 02/12z TJSJ sounding indicated 1.58 inches of
precipitable water (PWAT) content, southeast steering winds, and a
dry layer above 700 mb. Therefore, shallow moisture content in
combination with daytime heating and the sea breeze convergence
should lead to showers developing mainly over west-northwest PR
this afternoon.

For the rest of the period, breezy east to southeast trades will
persist, driven by a broad surface high pressure in the central
Atlantic. This flow will continue to transport warm, relatively
humid air into the region, keeping temperatures slightly above
seasonal normals. Model guidance support this warm trend as 925 mb
temperatures remain near the 75th percentile. Daytime highs are
forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s in coastal and urban
areas mainly, with heat indices likely exceeding 100F.

In general, expect mostly sunny skies with isolated, wind-driven
showers across the USVI and windward coasts during the overnight
and early morning hours each day. Diurnal heating and sea breeze
convergence could still trigger a few afternoon showers over
northwestern PR, but high stability and lack of deep moisture
content will limit coverage and intensity of these showers.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)...
Issued at 453 AM AST Sat May 2 2026

A series of surface highs and frontal lows over the Atlantic will
continue to influence steering flow throughout the period. The
period will start with light to moderate ESE winds on Tuesday
through at least Thursday night, this flow will continue to steer
moisture towards the region. Current model guidance suggests that
steering flow will become more variable Thursday night into Friday
turning more NE to E. Diurnal heating and local effects will induce
afternoon convection over mainly interior to W-NW PR Tuesday and
Wednesday while passing showers continue to be steered over windward
sectors, however mainly fair (but warm) weather conditions will
prevail. Most available moisture will be limited to below 800 mb
through most of the period as a mid-level ridge caps it off.
Available moisture will increase somewhat to end the period.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values will start at below normal to
normal, gradually increasing to more normal values as the period
continues particularly Thursday onwards.

By Thursday, an upper-level trough will also begin to amplify and
approach the region from the north and east, briefly increasing
instability (500 mb temps are forecast to cool to low end normal
to below normal values) and the potential for shower and isolated
t-storm development. Model guidance now suggests that this feature
should linger northeast of the area on Friday. This has the
chance to increase afternoon convection, including showers and
isolated t-storms, over mainly interior to W-NW PR on Thursday and
possibly over mainly interior to W-SW-S PR on Friday, prompting a
limited flooding risk both days. 925 mb temperatures are still
forecast at above normal values for this time of the year.
Prevailing ESE flow through most of the periods and available
humidity will prompt a limited heat risk for urban and coastal
areas of the islands with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s at
lower elevations, and in the upper 70s to mid-80s in higher
elevations. Heat indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s
degrees each day. Low concentrations of saharan dust will filter
into the area during the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 PM AST Sat May 2 2026

A broad high pressure over the central Atlantic will promote gentle
to moderate east to east-southeast winds across most waters through
the weekend and into early next week. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are expected across the local Caribbean passages tonight and
Sunday, where small craft operators should exercise caution. In
general, seas will range between 3 and 5 feet, occasionally reaching
up to 6 feet, driven by a combination of local wind waves and a
small, long-period northeasterly swell. Passing showers and isolated
thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and seas at times.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 102 PM AST Sat May 2 2026

Tonight, there is a moderate risk of rip currents along the north
and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well
as the U.S. Virgin Islands. This means life-threatening rip currents
are possible in the surf zone, and beachgoers should remain
cautious. This pattern will continue through the weekend and into
next week; at least through Wednesday, as pulses of a small, long-
period northeasterly swell occasionally promote higher breakers and
stronger rip currents along north-facing beaches.

For the second half of the week, some improvement is expected, with
a low risk likely to dominate. Remember that even when the risk is
low, life-threatening rip currents can still occur near groins,
jetties, reefs, and piers. For additional information and location-
specific rip current details, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES/MARINE/BEACH...YZR
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM...MRR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion