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789
FXCA62 TJSJ 091854
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
254 PM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 PM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

 * Hazardous marine and coastal conditions across all the local
   waters and most of the coastal areas, except for the southern
   coastal areas.

 * There are several marine/coastal advisories due to seas up to
   12 feet and breaking waves up to 15 ft, a coastal flood
   advisory ,a high surf advisory, a rip current statement, and
   several small craft advisories. For more detailed information,
   please visit the marine and beach forecast section below.

 * Variable weather conditions will persist under a northerly
   wind flow for the rest of Today into tomorrow. Weather
   conditions are forecast to shift toward an unsettled pattern
   from late Wednesday to Thursday. These conditions call for a
   limited shower activity across some sections of Puerto Rico.
   Please refer to the Graphical Hazardous Outlook (GHWO) on
   weather.gov/sju.

 * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, variable weather conditions with
  cloudiness across the islands and limited shower activity.

 * Colder temperatures for tonight into tomorrow due to a
  northerly wind flow across the region.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

A variable weather pattern remained during the morning hours with
limited cloudiness across the islands. As the day progressed,
cloudiness from the north moved across the islands and started to
develop showers, especially across northern, central, and
northeastern sections. According to the Doppler Radar, showers
remained in the light to moderate showers with minimal rainfall
accumulations. For the afternoon hours, showers also developed
across the southcentral sectionss including the municipality of
Ponce and the southeast sections. Winds persisted from the north
at 15 mph, especially near some coastal areas were showers
affected and some gusty winds mostly across the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Daytime temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to the low
80s across the northeastern sections, where showers and
cloudiness affected most of the morning and limited sunshine. A
slight pattern was observed across the southern sections of Puerto
Rico where temperature rise up to the upper 80s, with values
between 84 and 86 degrees.

For the rest of the day and into the early evening, variable
weather will persist, with widespread cloudiness across the
islands. Satellite imagery shows an area with limited cloud
activity forecast to move across the islands, reducing cloudiness.
Although conditions will briefly improve, Hi-Resolution
precipitation model guidance suggests an increase in cloudiness
and moisture in the early morning hours on Tuesday, which could
increase shower activity across the islands. Therefore, another
round of showers is expected under a northerly wind pattern
tomorrow morning, then again in the early afternoon. At the upper
levels, a strong trough will increase the wind divergence along
the islands. This change at the mid to upper levels might enhance
some shower development; however, thunderstorms are not likely.
For Wednesday, conditions will slightly deteriorate in terms of
temperatures at 500 MB, with values ranging from -7 to -9 degrees
across the northern sections of the region. At the surface, a
strong high pressure centered across the central Atlantic will
induce a more easterly wind flow for Wednesday. As a result,
temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to remain on the seasonal
pattern and the variations of the sunshine periods. For later on
Wednesday, under this evolving pattern, the sitting moisture field
from an old frontal bouandary move back across the islands late
on Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)...Issued at 420 am AST
Mon Feb 9 2026

A surface high-pressure system centered over the central Atlantic
shifting eastward will support light to moderate southeasterly
winds across the region. As the high continues to move eastwards,
abundant moisture associated with the remnants of a frontal
boundary will lift northward from Caribbean waters, reaching the
area through at least late Friday.

By Friday, an upper-level trough will approach from the northwest,
increasing atmospheric instability. The combination of southeasterly
flow and deep moisture will enhance the potential for widespread
showers throughout the long-term period. Precipitable water (PWAT)
analysis shows values climbing from 1.25 inches on Thursday to 1.75
inches by Friday, ranging from seasonal to above-normal
climatological levels.

Consequently, morning showers are expected across eastern Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective
activity over central and northwestern Puerto Rico. While
temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain below normal through
Friday, they are expected to rise on Saturday, bringing warmer
conditions back by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 PM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

RA and SHRA will continue to result in lower ceilings affecting
the FL020 to FL080. These conditions will briefly induce MVFR
across the TAF sites during the period. Winds will continue from
the N at 15 knots with gusty winds until 09/23Z, then increase
again from 10/12Z to 15 knots from the N with gusty winds during
the day. VCSH to SHRA from 10/09 to 10/18Z will continue to affect
the VIS at TJSJ, TJPS, TIST, and TISX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

A surface high-pressure system moving off the U.S. East Coast will
promote moderate to fresh northerly winds through Tuesday,
eventually veering to northeasterly and easterly from Wednesday
through Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will linger over the
Caribbean waters and the Anegada Passage during the next few days,
while another weak front moves into the offshore Atlantic waters.
These features will promote mostly cloudy skies across portions of
the regional waters. A large, long-period northwest swell will
maintain hazardous seas over the next few days. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for most local waters through at least
Wednesday and may extend through Thursday. Inexperienced mariners,
especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating
under these conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 250 PM AST Mon Feb 9 2026

A large, long-period northwest swell will continue to spread across
the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages over the next few
days. The peak of this swell event is expected this evening through
Tuesday morning. Current observations at the San Juan buoy (41053)
show seas around 9 feet with periods of 14 to 15 seconds, which
could result in breaking waves of approximately 13 to 16 feet. High
surf conditions, life-threatening rip currents, and minor coastal
flooding are expected with this large breaking wave action along the
northwest to northeast coasts of Puerto Rico, Culebra, the northern
U.S. Virgin Islands, and Vieques, which was recently added to the
High Surf Advisory. A Coastal Flood Advisory, High Surf Advisory,
and High Rip Current Statements remain in effect.

Beachgoers are urged to stay out of the water, continue monitoring
forecast updates, and follow all local advisories, warnings, and
guidance from lifeguards and local officials as conditions continue
to deteriorate.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST Tuesday for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010>013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Tuesday for PRZ001-002-005-008-
     010-012-013.

VI...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST Tuesday for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Tuesday for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-712-716-
     723-726-741-742-745.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AST
     Wednesday for AMZ733.

&&

$$

MORNING CREW...LIS/YZR
OVERNIGHT CREW...ICP

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion