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718
FXCA62 TJSJ 161734
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
134 PM AST Fri Oct 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1256 PM AST Fri Oct 16 2026

* Hot, humid conditions the rest of this afternoon. This level of
  heat could impact primarily the most sensitive individuals
  without effective cooling or adequate hydration across parts of
  the coast, urban areas, and lower elevations.

* Localized afternoon showers may cause ponding, mainly across
  interior and western Puerto Rico this afternoon.

* Generally fair weather will prevail through the weekend, with
  brief passing showers and localized afternoon convection.
  Moisture increases Sunday, but widespread rainfall remains
  unlikely.

* A northeasterly swell arriving late tonight into Saturday will
  increase the rip current risk along exposed north- and
  northeast-facing beaches of PR and the USVI.

* A more energetic northwesterly swell arriving late Monday into
  Tuesday will bring building seas and increasingly hazardous surf
  and rip currents, potentially persisting through midweek.



&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 1256 PM AST Fri Oct 16 2026

Generally fair weather prevailed across the region as subsidence
aloft limited shower activity over the islands. Cloudiness
increased across the interior and downwind of the islands and
mountains late morning into the afternoon. Some showers developed
downwind from St. Croix away from the island, and from Culebra
into eastern PR around noon. Easterly winds ranged from 5 to 15
mph, with higher gusts and local sea breeze variations. Coastal
and urban temperatures ranged from the upper 80s to low 90s. These
temperatures, combined with high humidity, resulted in heat
indices of 100 to 107 degrees Fahrenheit.

A building ridge, subsidence aloft, and drier air intrusion will
limit widespread convection across the islands this afternoon and
most of the weekend. However, daytime heating, sea breeze
convergence, and local terrain effects will support localized
afternoon convection, mainly over interior and western Puerto
Rico. A few showers may also develop downwind of St. Thomas, St.
Croix, Vieques, and Culebra. The flood threat will remain limited
for interior and western PR, with ponding on roads and in poorly
drained areas possible under heavier showers; isolated urban and
small-stream flooding also cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, prevailing easterly winds
may carry brief, passing showers. This advective pattern will
continue overnight into early Saturday morning, with brief,
passing showers affecting mainly windward areas, while leeward
locations can expect mostly clear skies.

Model guidance suggests that a mid- to upper-level ridge will
build over the region through the weekend, promoting subsidence
and limiting deep convection. Surface winds will gradually shift
to the east-southeast on Saturday and remain east-southeasterly on
Sunday. This flow will occasionally carry passing showers over
windward portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
During the afternoons, daytime heating and local convergence may
support localized convection across interior, northern, and
northwestern Puerto Rico, as well as downwind of the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Moisture is expected to increase somewhat on Sunday,
potentially supporting greater shower coverage. However,
persistent subsidence and limited large-scale forcing should
inhibit widespread convective development.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 344 AM AST Fri Oct 16 2026

A weak mid-level ridge will shift westward by Sunday as a deep mid-
to-upper-level low develops over the central North Atlantic.
Marginally unstable conditions will prevail through early next week,
with convection primarily driven by diurnal heating and local
effects. Below-normal mid-level moisture and relatively weak lapse
rates should limit convective coverage and intensity. By midweek,
uncertainty increases as models suggest possible low-pressure
development over the western Caribbean, potentially influencing
regional moisture and steering flow. However, NHC currently does not
anticipate tropical cyclone formation, and confidence remains low in
any substantial moisture increase or organized rainfall event.

Limited excessive rainfall and lightning risks will decrease through
the weekend and remain relatively low early next week, with
afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across interior
and western Puerto Rico. Some increase in convective activity
remains possible by midweek, although this will depend on moisture
availability and the evolving synoptic pattern. A limited heat risk
will persist across the islands, particularly during the late
morning and early afternoon before convective development. All three
hazard risks are expected to remain limited throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM AST Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conds will cont across all TAF sites, with mainly VCSH
throughout the prd. Aftn convt may bring VCSH over JBQ and
JPS, slgtly reducing CIGs/VIS through 16/21z. Winds from the E-ENE
will cont this aft btwn 10 - 15 kt, gusts up to 25 kt, weakening
and becoming light and VRB by 16/22-23z. Wind should strengthen
from the E-ESE btwn 10 - 15 kt by 17/13z. Although the likelihood
of -TSRA/TSRA is low tda, AMDs will be issued if required.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1256 PM AST Fri Oct 16 2026

Easterly winds will gradually shift to the east-southeast this
weekend. A building upper-level ridge will limit widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity, although occasional passing showers
will affect the regional waters. A small northeasterly swell will
begin arriving this afternoon, affecting mainly the Atlantic
waters and exposed passages. A more energetic northerly swell is
expected to arrive late Monday night into Tuesday and persist
through midweek, resulting in building seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 1256 PM AST Fri Oct 16 2026

A northeasterly swell arriving late tonight into Saturday will
increase the risk of rip currents along exposed north- and
northeast-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. A more energetic northwesterly swell arriving late Monday
into Tuesday will likely produce stronger rip currents and higher
surf along exposed beaches, particularly across northern and
northwestern Puerto Rico, with hazardous conditions potentially
persisting through midweek.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAM
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...MNG

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion