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434
FXCA62 TJSJ 121859
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
259 PM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 259 PM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

* There is a high risk of rip currents across the northern
  exposed coastal areas through tonight. A moderate risk is
  expected on Friday and Saturday.

* Variable weather conditions are expected, with additional
  passing light to moderate showers across the islands for the
  rest of today and tonight into Friday morning. Afterwards, a
  drier air mass will advect into the region during the day on
  Friday.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, isolated showers are possible each
  morning, however, mostly sunny conditions are expected on
  Friday and Saturday.

* Warmer temperatures are expected over the next few days under a
  drier pattern and southeasterly wind flow.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 259 PM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

The arrival of an induced surface trough and increased moisture,
with PWAT values between 1.7 and 1.8 inches as shown by derived
satellite imagery and the 12Z TJSJ sounding, resulted in showers
across the Caribbean waters this morning, with a few capable of
producing isolated thunderstorms. Under a northeasterly wind
pattern, a strong band of showers moved into southern Puerto Rico,
producing gusty winds and leaving between 1 and 1.5 inches of
rainfall based on radar estimates. The showers then continued to
move and develop across eastern and northern Puerto Rico, as well
as the U.S. Virgin Islands. The greatest rainfall accumulations
were observed between San Lorenzo and Yabucoa, with around 2 to 3
inches reported. Other areas received around 1 to 2 inches, while
the U.S. Virgin Islands observed around 0.25 inches or less.
Daytime temperatures were in the upper 70s to lower 80s across
coastal and urban areas and mainly in the 70s across the
mountainous regions.

A broad surface high pressure system over the central to eastern
Atlantic will promote east to southeasterly winds across the
islands. Under this pattern, moisture associated with the remnants
of a frontal boundary has increased moisture content and
cloudiness across the region, along with the presence of the
surface trough. This afternoon and tonight, additional showers
will be possible across the waters, with some reaching eastern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands once again. However, the
strongest activity for today has already occurred.

Similar conditions are forecast for Friday morning, with southeasterly
winds driven by the interaction between the surface high pressure
and the approach of a prefrontal boundary sinking north of the
region. As Friday morning progresses, a much drier air mass is
expected to dominate the region. According to the latest model
guidance, PWAT values will drop to near-normal or below-average
levels. Therefore, although conditions may begin somewhat variable
in the morning, limited shower activity is expected for most of
the day.

On Saturday, as the prefrontal trough moves closer to the region,
winds will shift from east-southeast to east-northeast.
Additionally, a weak pressure gradient is expected, resulting in
light and variable winds. Near-normal moisture content will likely
result in variable conditions with isolated to scattered showers,
mainly across the western interior of Puerto Rico during the
afternoon, posing little to no flood risk.

Slightly warmer daytime temperatures are forecast in the long
term, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s across coastal and
urban areas, and from the low 80s across the mountainous regions.
&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

As of right now, the wettest portion of the forecast period is
expected from Sunday into Monday, as another frontal boundary
approaches the forecast area from the northwest. This feature,
combined with a prevailing mid- to upper-level trough, will promote
enhanced moisture convergence and instability across the region.
Increasing precipitable water values and favorable upper-level
dynamics will support a higher coverage of showers, particularly
across northern and western Puerto Rico, with periods of locally
heavy rainfall possible. On Monday, winds will gradually veer to an
easterly direction as a surface high builds over the western
Atlantic and migrates toward the central Atlantic through the latter
part of the period.

By Tuesday, a mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to establish
across the region, promoting a gradual stabilization of the
atmosphere. Latest precipitable water (PWAT) guidance supports this
trend, with values returning closer to the seasonal values for this
time of the year around 1.20 to 1.55 inches. Under this pattern,
trade-wind moisture will favor brief passing morning showers across
eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by
afternoon convective development over interior and western Puerto
Rico.

Overall, the flooding threat should decrease after Monday as more
stable conditions take hold. Warm and humid conditions are expected
to persist through the remainder of the period. Residents are
encouraged to continue monitoring future forecasts, especially
regarding rainfall trends early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 259 PM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the forecast period.
Cloudiness will persist and VCSH are expected tonight across
TJSJ/TIST, but no significant impacts are anticipated. After
13/16-17Z VCSh or -RA across TJBQ. Winds from the E to SE,
becoming lighter overnight and then remaining mainly around 10 kts
on Friday after 13/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

A frontal low over the northwestern Atlantic will continue to move
eastward as a surface high builds over the southwestern Atlantic
during the weekend. Under this pattern, southeasterly winds tonight
will continue backing, becoming more northeasterly by Saturday
night. Seas will continue to subside as detected by offshore and
nearshore buoys. Marine conditions are expected to improve through
the weekend as seas subside and winds weaken. However, pulses of
northerly swell will reach the Atlantic waters by Monday of next
week, causing marine conditions to once again become hazardous at
times, particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 259 PM AST Thu Feb 12 2026

A high risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are
likely in the surf zone) will continue tonight for the northern
coastline of Puerto Rico and Culebra as breaking waves reach 6 to 7
feet. A moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents
are possible in the surf zone) will be in effect tonight for the
USVI, Vieques, northwestern PR and southwestern PR. Seas will
continue to subside tonight and, by tomorrow, up to a moderate risk
of rip currents will be in effect for the northwestern, northern and
northeastern beaches of PR, as well as for beaches of Culebra,
Vieques and the USVI. Additional pulses of northerly swell will
reach the Atlantic coast during the weekend. For more information,
visit: weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-012.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711-712-
     716-741.

&&

$$

MRR/YZR

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion