Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook

FLOOD THREAT

Lightning THREAT

HEAT THREAT

WIND THREAT

WAVES THREAT

RIP CURRENT THREAT



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280816
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
416 AM AST Thu Mar 28 2024


.SYNOPSIS...

A ridge of high pressure extending across the southwest, along with
an area of low pressure to the north at about 600 miles, will result
in light to moderate northerly winds persisting until the end of the
week and into the weekend. Also this weather scenario will limit
shower activity across the local region until Saturday. On Saturday,
a cold front now located over the eastern U.S. and extending south
to Central America will move ESE and over the local region by
Saturday. This weather feature will increase the shower coverage
late Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...

Throughout the overnight hours, predominantly fair weather
conditions persisted, marked by clear skies and mainly shower free
conditions. The Doppler radar only showed a few showers over the
Caribbean waters. This prevailing pattern is expected to persist
into the afternoon, with a slight potential for isolated showers to
develop over the southern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.

The current weather pattern will persist until Saturday,
Characterized by limited shower activity and  below normal
temperatures. Northerly winds and mostly clear skies will dominate
the  region during this period. However, this weather scenario is
anticipated to shift as a cold front is forecast to move across the
area late Saturday. While models indicate that the moisture
associated to the cold front will swiftly move eastward, there is a
likelihood of increase showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...

The inherited forecast remains unchanged. The latest model guidance
continues to suggest that residual moisture associated with the
passage of the cold front will remain over the area through the
end of the weekend. From Sunday into Monday, a brief dry air mass
will filter across the region, allowing the Precipitable Water
(PW) values to drop from 1.60 to around an inch. This means that
the PW content will go from above-normal climatological levels to
around normal to slightly below-normal climatological levels for
this time of the year. On Sunday, the surface high pressure, now
located over the state of Mississippi, just behind the
aforementioned cold front, will introduce northeasterly light to
moderate winds across the area. Under this wind pattern,
occasional trade wind showers cannot be ruled out of the forecast.
By the beginning of the workweek, the cold front will stall close
to the region, allowing the northeasterly trades to bring back
additional patches of moisture associated with the frontal system
into the area. At this time, the model suggests that the PW values
will stay around an inch/slightly below normal climatological
levels.

A change in weather conditions will occur on Wednesday as a drier
airmass filters across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
From midweek onwards, expect the wind to shift and become
easterly, allowing stable and typical weather conditions to
prevail across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF terminals
during the next 24 hours. N-NW winds will prevail through 28/18Z .
No significant rainfall activity is expected.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure ridge extending across the southwest
Atlantic and a distant area of low pressure north of the region will
promote light to moderate northerly winds through the end of the
week into the weekend. A large northerly swell generated by the
before mentioned low pressure will continue to affect the local
Atlantic waters including all local passages. This swell event
already peak and now is slowly decreasing but dangerous and
hazardous marine conditions will prevail through the weekend.
Another pulse of energy in the form of swells will affect the same
areas early Sunday morning.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

On Wednesday, multiple search and rescue operations were conducted
along the northern coast of Puerto Rico due to rough seas and strong
rip currents. There were reports of five search and rescue
incidents, including one drowning at Montones beach in Isabela and
an ongoing search for a person at La Pared beach in Luquillo.
Despite the northerly swell having already peaked, hazardous and
dangerous beach conditions will persist through the upcoming
weekend, with another swell event expected to reach our local
coast on Sunday.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-010.

     High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ011>013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for
AMZ711-712- 716-741-742-745.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EM
LONG TERM....MMC
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...EM
PUBLIC DESK...MMC

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion

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